March 4 Market Analysis: U.S. Stock Trends at a Critical Juncture

First, the S&P index has maintained a high-level consolidation for nearly the past 5 months, creating a low-volatility fluctuation area. From the perspective of market nature, this is a typical distribution zone, and it also signifies that the current bull market in U.S. stocks has entered its final phase.

Second, from the weekly technical pattern perspective, the index is currently right at the edge of the bull market support zone. The upcoming trend is crucial: if a large bearish candle on the weekly chart appears and breaks this support, it would signify the end of the bull market and the official onset of a bear market. Conversely, if the support holds and does not break, but instead continues to break upwards to create new highs, then everyone needs to remain vigilant, as this is highly likely to be the final lure for investors and the last opportunity to exit the market.

Third, looking back at historical patterns, in past bear market cycles, the declines in U.S. stock indices have invariably exceeded 20%.