Today, we welcome Powell's speech regarding the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut expected in 2025 (high probability), which I believe will be of great interest to all friends in the crypto market. What will the future trends look like? Let me first analyze the impact of past interest rate cut cycles on BTC price trends.
The political and economic situation in the United States in 2019 is similar to today, with interest rate cuts resulting in both increases and decreases, and the overall trend oscillating downward from a high point. After the first interest rate cut, the price of BTC rose. However, the price of BTC still has a weak correlation with the US stock market.
In 2020, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a sudden and violent series of interest rate cuts, which is different from the current situation and has weaker comparability.
However, it should be noted that starting in 2020, the overall trend of BTC prices began to converge with U.S. stock movements.
2024 marks the first interest rate cut cycle in the U.S. after the COVID-19 pandemic, with BTC prices becoming more closely related to U.S. stocks, leading to an epic rise. During the three interest rate cuts in 2024, after reaching a peak before the third cut, there was a significant pullback, and after the third cut, it surged to an all-time high, followed by a deep retreat.
Looking back at each interest rate hike and cut after 2021, especially after 2022, it can be found that the large-scale movements of BTC have started to converge with U.S. stock movements, particularly at important nodes where the price changes of BTC and U.S. stocks are becoming more synchronized.
Specifically regarding the announcement of interest rate cuts, when the Federal Reserve Chairman speaks, it can be observed that after the Chairman announces a rate cut, the real-time BTC price changes little. The interest rate cut cycle and market capital flows need to be considered in the long term.
What will today's trend be like? During the Trump administration, the Federal Reserve's farce, its independence was challenged again, and 'insiders' were forcefully inserted before the vote, investigating 'disruptors' in an era of continuous farce. Tonight, Powell's speech, the dot plot, and the internal voting situation will be the most important information affecting the cryptocurrency market in the coming months.
Welcome everyone to leave comments and share your analyses! Thank you!
