My thoughts on $BTC I shared yesterday.
Read if you missed.
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CRYPTO MECHANIC
ยท
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Bitcoin Market Update: Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin was already struggling since October 2025, and then Trump decided to start the war with Iran. The conflict has been increasing day by day. We are seeing attacks in the Middle East, and since a big part of the worldโs oil supply comes from Arab countries, the impact is clear.
Oil prices are going up. And oil is not something that should be taken lightly. The world depends on it. The global economy depends on it. When oil prices go up, many countries have to deal with higher inflation, which is obviously not good for the general public.
Anyways, since we are all trading crypto here, letโs take a look at Bitcoinโs chart and see whatโs going on. Even though charts may not help much right now because price movements are mostly driven by headlines but still we have to use it as this is the only tool we use to observe price strength and weakness.
BTCUSD (Monthly)
Bitcoin broke its monthly uptrend when the price dropped below the $74,400 low. You might wonder: price is already down around 50%, and now the monthly uptrend is breaking?
Well, youโre not wrong. But this is a high timeframe, and this is exactly how high timeframe trends usually work.
They take months to form, and they also take months to break.
Here is what happened in the last two bull markets when Bitcoin broke the monthly trend.
In both cases, the trend broke after more than a 50% drop from the top. And after the trend was broken, the price made another move of around 40% to the downside.. Will the price repeat it? I don't know
5 Months of the Downside
Bitcoin has printed 5 consecutive red monthly candles, and I do think the chart is due for a relief bounce. Maybe we get one or two green monthly candles.
When that relief bounce will happen, or from where exactly it will start, is hard to say right now. The market is very headline-driven because of the war, which makes things difficult to predict. So for that we will use price confirmation rather than just drawing random lines and hope that the market will follow. We will use weekly and daily chart for that.
Remember one thing even if we get that relief bounce, it wouldnโt change anything on the monthly trend. The higher timeframe trend would still remain bearish.
BTCUSD (Weekly)
$69k โ $71,200 was previously rejecting the price before we finally saw a breakout above it. Now that the price is trading below this level again, you can notice that price is struggling to hold above it.
Like I said earlier, we will wait for price confirmation instead of making predictions.
I think once price gives a weekly close above this level, that will be our confirmation that the crypto market is ready for a relief move to the upside.
As long as the price is below that level, you can just let the market do whatever it wants on these war headlines.
BTCUSD (Daily)
Price tried to break out of the $71,200 zone last week, but it ended up being a fake-out.
You can also notice that since the top was formed, most fake-outs have pushed the price much lower afterward.
Iโve shared multiple lessons about how market fake-outs work, so I hope by now you understand how to spot them and avoid getting trapped.
BTCUSD (Daily)
If you look at the current chart, you can see higher lows and a higher high forming within this price action. The price can move up if that higher low holds.
If youโre looking for fresh entries, I would say: just wait for the market to give a $71,200 price confirmation before planning your trade setups.
This way, you not only get price confirmation, but you also avoid being affected by the headline-driven moves caused by the war.
This is it for now, if i see any changes i will keep you guys updated.
Oil prices are going up. And oil is not something that should be taken lightly. The world depends on it. The global economy depends on it. When oil prices go up, many countries have to deal with higher inflation, which is obviously not good for the general public.
Anyways, since we are all trading crypto here, letโs take a look at Bitcoinโs chart and see whatโs going on. Even though charts may not help much right now because price movements are mostly driven by headlines but still we have to use it as this is the only tool we use to observe price strength and weakness.
BTCUSD (Monthly)
Bitcoin broke its monthly uptrend when the price dropped below the $74,400 low. You might wonder: price is already down around 50%, and now the monthly uptrend is breaking?
Well, youโre not wrong. But this is a high timeframe, and this is exactly how high timeframe trends usually work.
They take months to form, and they also take months to break.
Here is what happened in the last two bull markets when Bitcoin broke the monthly trend.
In both cases, the trend broke after more than a 50% drop from the top. And after the trend was broken, the price made another move of around 40% to the downside.. Will the price repeat it? I don't know
5 Months of the Downside
Bitcoin has printed 5 consecutive red monthly candles, and I do think the chart is due for a relief bounce. Maybe we get one or two green monthly candles.
When that relief bounce will happen, or from where exactly it will start, is hard to say right now. The market is very headline-driven because of the war, which makes things difficult to predict. So for that we will use price confirmation rather than just drawing random lines and hope that the market will follow. We will use weekly and daily chart for that.
Remember one thing even if we get that relief bounce, it wouldnโt change anything on the monthly trend. The higher timeframe trend would still remain bearish.
BTCUSD (Weekly)
$69k โ $71,200 was previously rejecting the price before we finally saw a breakout above it. Now that the price is trading below this level again, you can notice that price is struggling to hold above it.
Like I said earlier, we will wait for price confirmation instead of making predictions.
I think once price gives a weekly close above this level, that will be our confirmation that the crypto market is ready for a relief move to the upside.
As long as the price is below that level, you can just let the market do whatever it wants on these war headlines.
BTCUSD (Daily)
Price tried to break out of the $71,200 zone last week, but it ended up being a fake-out.
You can also notice that since the top was formed, most fake-outs have pushed the price much lower afterward.
Iโve shared multiple lessons about how market fake-outs work, so I hope by now you understand how to spot them and avoid getting trapped.
BTCUSD (Daily)
If you look at the current chart, you can see higher lows and a higher high forming within this price action. The price can move up if that higher low holds.
If youโre looking for fresh entries, I would say: just wait for the market to give a $71,200 price confirmation before planning your trade setups.
This way, you not only get price confirmation, but you also avoid being affected by the headline-driven moves caused by the war.
This is it for now, if i see any changes i will keep you guys updated.