Will history rhyme again?

In 2022, after BTC fell to 26000, it fluctuated for 1 month (around May 12 to June 11) before falling again to 17000.

In this round, after BTC fell to 80000, it fluctuated for 2 months (around November 21 to January 20) before dropping to 60000.

The characteristic of this round is that the decline is fast, but it may fluctuate for a longer period.

After BTC fell to 17000 in 2022, it had a mild upward fluctuation for 2 months (around June 18 to August 19) before starting to decline again.

This is a period where the short to medium-term moving averages are intertwined below, waiting for the long-term moving averages to converge.

Currently, after this round of BTC reaching 60000, it has fluctuated for 1 month from February 6 until now. The next likely scenario is still a fluctuating market.

At present, if there are no black swan events, it may resemble the upward fluctuations of 2022.

However, tomorrow's CPI data may be negative, Trump's rhetoric about the end of the Iranian conflict may not be over yet, and Trump's visit to China from late March to early April may boost sentiment. It is uncertain whether it can fluctuate upward next.