A week after the start of the Middle East conflict, global markets continue to react to the fallout from the escalation. Oil showed record growth, the dollar strengthened, and cryptocurrencies demonstrated 'unexpected resilience.'
Cryptocurrency market
On February 28, amid strikes by the USA and Israel on Iran, the price $BTC dropped to $63,000, and Ethereum fell to $1,800. The total volume of liquidations in the digital assets sector during the first weekend of the conflict exceeded $963 million.
However, the decline turned out to be short-term. Already on March 1, the exchange rate of the first cryptocurrency recovered to $67,700, and on March 4, it tested $74,000.
Some experts called such dynamics expected, noting the status of Bitcoin as a neutral means of saving. Others considered the reaction 'unexpectedly resilient', given the overall weakness of risky assets and global stock markets.
At the time of writing, $BTC adjusted to the level of $70,000. Over the past day, the price of the asset rose by 3.7%. The positive sentiment among market participants was aided by a statement from US President Donald Trump about the possibility of a quick end to operations in Iran.
The exchange rate $ETH holds at around ~$2000 (+2.8% over the last 24 hours).
Coins from the top 10 by market capitalization moved in line with the two leading cryptocurrencies. The total market value of the sector rose by 3.2% — to $2.4 trillion.
At the same time, uncertainty prevails among crypto investors. A popular market sentiment indicator is in the 'extreme fear' zone.
Gold and stocks
At the beginning of the conflict, gold confirmed its status as a classic defensive asset. On March 2, the spot price rose to $5,297 per ounce, while futures closed even higher — around $5,312. At the time of writing, quotes adjusted to $5,170.
Silver demonstrated a similar dynamic. Over the past week, the asset rose by almost 7% to $88.6.
The first week after the strikes on Iran was marked by a risk reassessment on the stock markets. Investor reactions varied significantly depending on the region.
US indices fell relatively moderately. Over the past seven days, the Dow Jones dropped by 1.5%, the S&P 500 by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq added 0.8%.
In Europe, the decline was more noticeable due to the spike in oil prices and fears of a new wave of inflation. By March 9, the STOXX 600 fell by 0.6% and was nearly 6% lower than the record close on February 27. Over the week, the index lost 1.5%.
Asia has suffered the most. The region reacted sharply to threats to trade routes and high dependence on raw material imports. Over seven days, the South Korean KOSPI fell by 4.4%, and the Japanese Nikkei by 3.5%.
Oil
As a result of the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Supreme Leader of the country, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed. One of Tehran's retaliatory measures was the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a key route for exporting oil and LNG from the Persian Gulf. Threats to attack tankers provoked panic in commodity markets.
Raw materials became the main indicator of investor nervousness. Already on March 1-2, quotes began to rise on fears of supply shortages. On March 9, the price of oil exceeded $120 per barrel for the first time since June 2022. After Trump's words about a possible de-escalation, the price of Brent fell to $92.
In CryptoQuant, the rise in oil prices was named an unfavorable factor for Bitcoin. According to experts, the geopolitical shock could trigger a surge in inflation and create a negative environment for cryptocurrencies.
One of the main threats, experts believe, is the potential disruptions in supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The consequences of such restrictions will extend far beyond the local conflict: pressure on the global energy market will intensify inflationary risks and increase volatility in financial markets. Some suggest that the logistical shock may last longer than the war itself.
Dollar
In the currency market, a traditional dynamic for periods of escalation was observed: investors moved into defensive assets. The increased demand for the dollar led to a rise in the DXY index, which reached 109 points on March 5.
The currency situation in Iran remained critical even before the conflict began. By early December 2025, the rial's exchange rate collapsed to a record low in the history of the Islamic Republic — 1.2 million per US dollar. By the end of January 2026, the figure fell to 1.5 million.
Amid escalating tensions, cryptocurrencies found themselves in the same category as the US dollar and gold as a tool through which it is possible to at least partially escape inflation. However, after the strikes began, the domestic market sharply contracted due to mass internet and communication outages throughout the country.
According to TRM Labs, the volume of crypto transactions from February 27 to March 1 fell by about 80%. Analysts recorded a daily surge in activity of $3 million at the end of February but explained it as internal fund movement rather than capital flight.
Some experts still recorded an outflow of user funds. According to Elliptic, in the first minutes after the start of the joint military operation by the US and Israel against Iran, the volume of withdrawals from the country's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Nobitex, surged by 700%.