On September 25, 2025, Beijing time, Bitcoin is once again approaching the critical level of $112,000! This core price level, which has become a fierce battleground for both bulls and bears, has already become the 'Maginot line' determining the continuation of the bull market in 2025.

Last night, on-chain data showed unusual activity: a single transfer of 38,000 BTC quietly moved from Coinbase to cold wallets, indicating that institutions are clearly accumulating on dips; meanwhile, the entire network's leveraged contracts market has accumulated over $5 billion in liquidation risk exposure — an epic battle of longs and shorts is quietly unfolding.

$112,000: Why has it become a battleground for bulls and bears?

Core technical anchor point

$112,000 is not only the historical high set in July 2025 but also the core hub of the 100-day moving average support system. Once this price level is lost, the programmatic trading system may trigger a chain of stop-loss sell-offs, and prices could theoretically plummet to the $97,000 area.

Institutional profit safety threshold

The Bitcoin holding cost of ETF giants like BlackRock is concentrated in the $69,000-$74,000 range, while $112,000 is the key defense line for maintaining reasonable profitability. Matrixport's latest report points out that if prices fall below this level, institutions are likely to start using reserve funds to support the market through ETF channels.

Retail sentiment threshold

Coinglass data shows that the price range of $110,000-$115,000 has accumulated nearly $800 million in short positions, and this dense trading area is becoming an ideal target for whales to layout for 'liquidation harvesting'.

Undercurrents: Three major signals guiding future market direction

Bullish ace: Institutional accumulation rhythm unchanged

The US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $876 million last week, with BlackRock's IBIT single-day trading volume setting a record of $1.5 billion, continuing the capital siphoning effect.

Frequent actions from listed companies: Metaplanet acquired 5,419 BTC, MicroStrategy's holdings exceeded 630,000 BTC, and the willingness of leading enterprises to allocate continues to strengthen.

Key indicators release positive signals: Coinbase spot premium index remains positive, reflecting that US retail investors' buying on dips remains strong.

Short nuclear bomb: The Fed's hawkish signal strikes

On the eve of the September FOMC meeting, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and other hawkish figures reiterated inflation concerns, and the market expects that the Fed may adopt a 'hawkish rate cut' — a cut of 25bps but signaling 'subsequent pauses', which may strengthen the dollar or withdraw liquidity from the crypto market.

The panic index VIX surged 35% in a single day, and the pullback in US tech stocks has triggered market risk aversion, which may trigger a chain sell-off of crypto assets.

Explosion warning: October may welcome a breakthrough market

The options market shows optimistic expectations: Traders are clustering to lay out call options expiring at the end of October with an exercise price of $120,000-$125,000, betting that the 'October volatility curse' will turn into a 'breakout market'.

Policy dividends are imminent: Trump officially signed (guidance and establishment of the US stablecoin national innovation act) in July (the Genius Act), which establishes a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, clearing obstacles for hundreds of billions of traditional funds to enter the market.

Retail survival guide: How to avoid 'leverage harvesting' risks?

Position management strategy

Core position (60%): Firmly hold BTC/ETH spot, and if the price falls below $110,000, consider reducing positions by 20% to shrink the defense line.

Swing position (30%): Focus on Layer2 tracks (ODIN, STX) and RWA concept coins (ONDO); these targets form a natural safety cushion based on institutional cost zones.

Risk hedging plan

Buy put options with an exercise price of $100,000 to cover the extreme market black swan risk with limited cost.

Deadly trap identification

Beware of the 'flash crash spike' market during the low liquidity period of the Asian early session, and it is recommended to set a 5% trailing stop-loss mechanism.

Firmly avoid high-leverage contracts! Historical liquidation data shows that leverage of 50 times or more is the main reason for over 80% of retail losses.

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