The recent increase in the market seems quite positive at first glance, but upon closer inspection of the cash flow structure, I see that this is not yet a truly strong increase.

The reason lies in the fact that the main momentum is coming from perp, while the spot side shows signs of selling. This means that prices are primarily being pushed up by leverage, rather than by real holding demand.

In my opinion, this is the point that requires the most caution. When a rally is driven by perp but not confirmed by spot, the market often lacks a sustainable foundation. Simply put, the buying force is more speculative than accumulative.

In the short term, this could still help prices continue to rise for a while, but the longer it lasts, the greater the risk, because if the leverage cash flow weakens or is forced to liquidate, prices can turn around very quickly.

The model of 'pump with perp, dump with spot' often does not create a sustainable upward trend. It resembles a price pull to absorb liquidity rather than the beginning of a stable growth phase.

Therefore, the scenario I lean towards is that after the momentum from leverage runs out, the market will face clearer adjustment pressure.
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