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Altcoin/BTC after the bearish cycle since 2022: Reversal signals gradually emerging
ALTCOINS / BTC
If I look at the long-term frame, this structure is actually quite clear. Since 2022, altcoins have continuously weakened against
, creating a series of lower highs and lower lows extending.
For me, this is no longer a typical correction, but a downtrend long enough and deep enough to form a large descending wedge pattern, which usually appears in the later stages of a bearish cycle.
If I look at the long-term frame, this structure is actually quite clear. Since 2022, altcoins have continuously weakened against
, creating a series of lower highs and lower lows extending.
For me, this is no longer a typical correction, but a downtrend long enough and deep enough to form a large descending wedge pattern, which usually appears in the later stages of a bearish cycle.
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Instead of receiving a default commission before, now Binance will set it according to the level of 30-40-50% depending on the level you achieve.
Commission upgrade: Can occur daily – just meet the criteria, and the system will automatically upgrade the next day.
Ethereum reaches record transactions, fees remain low compared to the 2021 cycle
Transaction volume on Ethereum has now reached an all-time high, but for me, what’s more noteworthy is that transaction fees are still far from the peak in 2021.
Currently, the network is processing about 3 times the number of transactions, while the total costs users have to pay are only nearly 1/3 compared to the previous peak period.
For me, this is not a coincidence. In 2021, most fees came from speculative activities, where users were willing to pay very high prices just to be prioritized in short-term frenzies. Now, the picture is different.
Currently, the network is processing about 3 times the number of transactions, while the total costs users have to pay are only nearly 1/3 compared to the previous peak period.
For me, this is not a coincidence. In 2021, most fees came from speculative activities, where users were willing to pay very high prices just to be prioritized in short-term frenzies. Now, the picture is different.
Bitcoin has not caught up with gold in the context of increasing global liquidity
$BTC only has one chance to make the strongest catch-up phase in this entire cycle.
Since December, global liquidity has started to expand again. New money is no longer tightening as it did before, but is gradually seeking assets that can hold their value and reflect macro expectations.
In the first upward trend, gold is clearly the most beneficial asset, absorbing almost all the momentum of the new liquidity wave, while Bitcoin seems slow and left behind.
Since December, global liquidity has started to expand again. New money is no longer tightening as it did before, but is gradually seeking assets that can hold their value and reflect macro expectations.
In the first upward trend, gold is clearly the most beneficial asset, absorbing almost all the momentum of the new liquidity wave, while Bitcoin seems slow and left behind.
Potential Points of Centralization in Vanar Chain Infrastructure
One evening I tried to redeploy a small contract on Vanar, not to do anything big, just to test the data flow and system response.
Everything runs quite smoothly. Transactions confirm quickly, data returns neatly.
But precisely because it is so smooth, I start to wonder: in a system strongly optimized for such experience, where are the actual points of centralization?
Vanar positions itself as a friendly infrastructure for games, entertainment, and high-interaction applications.
Bitcoin drops to record low valuation compared to gold, market signals imbalance
Bitcoin – if viewed as 'digital gold' – is in an unusually cheap state compared to physical gold. And this is not just a feeling, but something that is clearly reflected in the data.
The 2-week RSI of the $BTC /gold ratio has just fallen to around 29, the lowest level ever recorded. The signals on the weekly and monthly frames are similar.
While gold is rising strongly as a traditional safe-haven asset, Bitcoin has been price-constrained for a long time, causing the valuation gap between these two 'golds' to widen.
The 2-week RSI of the $BTC /gold ratio has just fallen to around 29, the lowest level ever recorded. The signals on the weekly and monthly frames are similar.
While gold is rising strongly as a traditional safe-haven asset, Bitcoin has been price-constrained for a long time, causing the valuation gap between these two 'golds' to widen.
The Position of Plasma XPL in the Current Scaling Picture of Ethereum
If you look at the picture of scaling Ethereum from a distance, it is easy to feel that everything has been 'determined'.
Rollup is everywhere. Optimistic, ZK, app-rollup, shared sequencer, DA layer... Each update cycle adds a new piece to the puzzle.
But the more I look closely, the more I see that picture is not yet closed. It is just delving deeper into a single assumption: on-chain data is the price to pay for absolute safety.
And it is precisely here that Plasma XPL has a very different position, even somewhat uncomfortable if viewed from a rollup-centric mindset.
The Bitcoin market enters a critical phase
The market $BTC is entering a sensitive phase as actual profit and loss flows decline sharply. The rush of profit-taking at the beginning and end of 2024 has created momentum for clear price increases, but the recent rise in actual losses indicates that surrender pressure is quietly forming beneath the surface of the market.
In the short term, such decline phases often occur in the final distribution stage, when the upward momentum begins to slow down and the market becomes more selective with cash flow. This is not necessarily an immediate reversal signal, but it is rarely an easy trading phase.
In the short term, such decline phases often occur in the final distribution stage, when the upward momentum begins to slow down and the market becomes more selective with cash flow. This is not necessarily an immediate reversal signal, but it is rarely an easy trading phase.
How does Vanar Chain handle on-chain / off-chain data?
Today is the start of the week, so I tried to see how an application on @Vanarchain Vanar processes user data.
The first thing I noticed was not the speed, but the feeling... light. There aren't too many things pushed onto the on-chain in a forced manner.
Vanar seems to accept a rather straightforward reality: blockchain shouldn't store everything. On-chain only keeps what is necessary for integrity – state, ownership, contract logic, and reference hashes. This part acts as the final ledger, where trust in others is unnecessary.
Heavier data like media, large metadata, or user behavior is processed off-chain.
This helps reduce costs and provides faster responses, especially for entertainment applications. In return, the system must manage the connection between these two layers well.
This division is not perfect, but at least it acknowledges the limitations of blockchain, rather than pretending that everything should be on-chain.
@Vanarchain #vanar $VANRY
Today is the start of the week, so I tried to see how an application on @Vanarchain Vanar processes user data.
The first thing I noticed was not the speed, but the feeling... light. There aren't too many things pushed onto the on-chain in a forced manner.
Vanar seems to accept a rather straightforward reality: blockchain shouldn't store everything. On-chain only keeps what is necessary for integrity – state, ownership, contract logic, and reference hashes. This part acts as the final ledger, where trust in others is unnecessary.
Heavier data like media, large metadata, or user behavior is processed off-chain.
This helps reduce costs and provides faster responses, especially for entertainment applications. In return, the system must manage the connection between these two layers well.
This division is not perfect, but at least it acknowledges the limitations of blockchain, rather than pretending that everything should be on-chain.
@Vanarchain #vanar $VANRY
@Plasma is one of the names that made me stop and observe longer than usual, not because of a new narrative, but because it touches on an old question: What does DeFi really need to exist sustainably.
If looking at the surface, Plasma $XPL promises high throughput, low cost, and better scalability compared to many current L1s.
But DeFi doesn't die because of high fees; it dies because the underlying assumptions are broken when the system is under pressure. The question is not how fast it is, but when there is a problem, who controls it, who stops the system, and whether users can withdraw their money.
One point I noticed about Plasma XPL is how they approach execution and control. The structure allows for performance optimization but at the same time shifts some power towards the operators.
For DeFi builders, this is both attractive and dangerous. Attractive because you have a stable, predictable environment that is easy to design products for. Dangerous because the line between 'technical optimization' and 'centralization' is very thin.
DeFi, at a deeper level, is not about UI or APY. It is the belief that when things go wrong, the system still operates according to the established rules.
If Plasma XPL can prove that the mechanisms for pause, upgrade, or intervention are designed transparently, with clear limits, then this is a platform worth building on.
So, is Plasma XPL suitable for building DeFi? Maybe. But only suitable for teams that understand clearly.
#Plasma @Plasma $XPL
If looking at the surface, Plasma $XPL promises high throughput, low cost, and better scalability compared to many current L1s.
But DeFi doesn't die because of high fees; it dies because the underlying assumptions are broken when the system is under pressure. The question is not how fast it is, but when there is a problem, who controls it, who stops the system, and whether users can withdraw their money.
One point I noticed about Plasma XPL is how they approach execution and control. The structure allows for performance optimization but at the same time shifts some power towards the operators.
For DeFi builders, this is both attractive and dangerous. Attractive because you have a stable, predictable environment that is easy to design products for. Dangerous because the line between 'technical optimization' and 'centralization' is very thin.
DeFi, at a deeper level, is not about UI or APY. It is the belief that when things go wrong, the system still operates according to the established rules.
If Plasma XPL can prove that the mechanisms for pause, upgrade, or intervention are designed transparently, with clear limits, then this is a platform worth building on.
So, is Plasma XPL suitable for building DeFi? Maybe. But only suitable for teams that understand clearly.
#Plasma @Plasma $XPL
Ethereum Transaction Activity Soars in Q1 2026
The number of transactions per second across the entire Ethereum ecosystem is increasing rapidly in a very short time.
Daily transaction volume has surged from around 230 transactions per second to over 1,800 transactions per second in just a few days.
Notably, most of this activity is no longer taking place on the Ethereum mainnet but has been shifted to layer 2 solutions. Currently, Layer 2 solutions are handling up to 98.51% of the total transaction volume of the ecosystem.
Daily transaction volume has surged from around 230 transactions per second to over 1,800 transactions per second in just a few days.
Notably, most of this activity is no longer taking place on the Ethereum mainnet but has been shifted to layer 2 solutions. Currently, Layer 2 solutions are handling up to 98.51% of the total transaction volume of the ecosystem.
Ethereum Q1/2026: When the 'Giant' Awakens After the Accumulation Phase
My view on Ethereum in Q1/2026 is positive in the medium term, although the short term may still see a lot of volatility.
At this stage, ETH is gradually moving beyond its role as a purely speculative asset to become an important part of the infrastructure of the digital financial system.
As of the end of January 2026, the price $ETH fluctuates around the $2,950 area, reflecting a relatively clear accumulation phase. Despite pressure from macro factors, the price structure still maintains higher lows, indicating that the long-term upward trend has not been broken.
At this stage, ETH is gradually moving beyond its role as a purely speculative asset to become an important part of the infrastructure of the digital financial system.
As of the end of January 2026, the price $ETH fluctuates around the $2,950 area, reflecting a relatively clear accumulation phase. Despite pressure from macro factors, the price structure still maintains higher lows, indicating that the long-term upward trend has not been broken.
Strategy Sends Signal That May Increase Bitcoin Holdings
Michael Saylor just sent out a familiar but not vague signal: Strategy may continue to buy more $BTC . No need for a loud declaration, just a light hint is enough for the market to understand the message behind.
Looking at the history of Strategy, one can see a consistent philosophy: accumulate Bitcoin for the long term, without wavering according to short-term cycles.
They do not buy out of excitement, nor do they sell out of fear. Buying BTC is seen as restructuring the balance sheet, not a 'trade deal'.
Looking at the history of Strategy, one can see a consistent philosophy: accumulate Bitcoin for the long term, without wavering according to short-term cycles.
They do not buy out of excitement, nor do they sell out of fear. Buying BTC is seen as restructuring the balance sheet, not a 'trade deal'.
Can Dusk become the infrastructure for RWA?
@Dusk
hello everyone today I scroll square and see many people discussing
Every time I hear someone talk about RWA, I always reflexively step back a beat.
Not because this concept is new or far-fetched, but because it carries a heavy chain of assumptions about trust, legality, and humans — things that crypto does not handle well unless we look straight into their dark sides.
Dusk appears in this story as quite an enticing promise: an infrastructure focused on privacy, compliance, and tokenizing real-world assets.
hello everyone today I scroll square and see many people discussing
Every time I hear someone talk about RWA, I always reflexively step back a beat.
Not because this concept is new or far-fetched, but because it carries a heavy chain of assumptions about trust, legality, and humans — things that crypto does not handle well unless we look straight into their dark sides.
Dusk appears in this story as quite an enticing promise: an infrastructure focused on privacy, compliance, and tokenizing real-world assets.
Dusk Network and the Trend of Security Tokenization
If we look at tokenizing securities from outside crypto, I think it’s easy to see a paradox: everyone says this is the future of finance, but very few systems are actually being used in real operations.
The reason does not lie in the blockchain not being fast enough or cheap enough.
It lies in the fact that most Web3 infrastructure is designed for DeFi, while securities live in a completely different world—where compliance, privacy, and legal responsibilities are far more important than composability or permissionless.
Bitcoin in Q1: A Shaping Phase of Trends and a Test of Market Confidence
If viewed from a seasonal perspective, Q1 is usually not a booming phase but rather a 'shaping' phase. Historical data shows that January and February have quite clear positive yield expectations, while March tends to be more polarized.
This tells me that Q1 is rarely the place where the market provides the final answer, but rather where it poses questions.
I usually view Q1 as a test of structure. When $BTC increases in January-February, the important factor is not the percentage increase, but the price increase in the context of liquidity, who is buying and who is selling.
This tells me that Q1 is rarely the place where the market provides the final answer, but rather where it poses questions.
I usually view Q1 as a test of structure. When $BTC increases in January-February, the important factor is not the percentage increase, but the price increase in the context of liquidity, who is buying and who is selling.
How can Vanar change the play-to-earn model?
Looking back at play-to-earn from the 2020-2022 period, I think its problem has never been about whether 'making money from games is feasible or not.'
The problem lies in the game being turned into a disguised financial mechanism, where gameplay is only a means to farm tokens.
When new cash flow stops, the entire model collapses very quickly.
Vanar is interesting in that they do not try to fix play-to-earn by changing tokenomics, but rather ask the fundamental question: where should the role of blockchain in games truly lie?
Plasma collaborates with NEAR Intents to optimize execution prices for on-chain transactions
@Plasma has just announced the integration of NEAR Intents. It may seem like just another technical update in crypto, but if you look closely, especially for those interested in DEX vs CEX — this is a noteworthy piece, particularly when it comes to large volume transactions.
NEAR Intents, simply put, is an approach where users do not need to worry too much about how it works, but just need to clearly state what result they want.
NEAR Intents, simply put, is an approach where users do not need to worry too much about how it works, but just need to clearly state what result they want.
Cash flow from BTC mining pools is running dry: Is the market preparing for a new liquidity explosion?
Selling pressure from miners is reaching the lowest levels of the cycle. Looking at the on-chain data at this moment, a fairly clear story can be seen: BTC cash flow out of miner wallets has just dropped to extremely low levels. This is not just a technical number, but a behavioral signal that needs to be read in the correct context.
Today, the amount $BTC transferred out from the mining pools is only about 84 BTC. Historically, whenever this cash flow has dwindled to such an extent, it often reflects two parallel possibilities.
Today, the amount $BTC transferred out from the mining pools is only about 84 BTC. Historically, whenever this cash flow has dwindled to such an extent, it often reflects two parallel possibilities.
Is Vanar Chain going against the current Web3 trend?
In the context of 2026, when many Web3 projects are still obsessed with pursuing Layer 2, Layer 3, or increasingly complex DeFi structures, @Vanarchain has chosen a simpler and more practical direction: focusing on real-world applications.
In my view, the team is prioritizing a smooth experience for regular users. Adhering to ESG standards also helps Vanar easily collaborate with large traditional enterprises.
While the market is struggling, focusing on real usability will help Vanar maintain stability and sustainable viability through various cycles.
@Vanarchain #vanar $VANRY
In the context of 2026, when many Web3 projects are still obsessed with pursuing Layer 2, Layer 3, or increasingly complex DeFi structures, @Vanarchain has chosen a simpler and more practical direction: focusing on real-world applications.
In my view, the team is prioritizing a smooth experience for regular users. Adhering to ESG standards also helps Vanar easily collaborate with large traditional enterprises.
While the market is struggling, focusing on real usability will help Vanar maintain stability and sustainable viability through various cycles.
@Vanarchain #vanar $VANRY
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