💥💥💥Is the liquidity gate about to open? The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October is close to 90%

Yesterday, the U.S. released the August core PCE data (which excludes food and energy from the inflation index), and the results completely met expectations: year-on-year 2.9%, month-on-month 0.2%. As soon as this data was released, the market immediately felt that the Federal Reserve could basically follow through with its planned rate cuts. CME's predictions were also very straightforward: the probability of maintaining the interest rate in October is only 10.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is close to 90% (currently at 87.7%).

The key point is that Powell added another note in the early hours—he said that if the upcoming economic data continues to be weak, the Federal Reserve not only needs to cut rates, but might also do so more quickly and aggressively, even considering offloading non-Treasury assets to fully support the economy. It’s important to note that Powell's hawkish stance has completely changed, and now he is quite anxious, indicating that the economic pressure is much greater than what everyone sees.

Now it seems that the liquidity gate might completely open. The day before yesterday, Trump was still dealing with tariffs, leaving everyone confused about the market's direction. Now the answer has been given. This time, the Federal Reserve is no longer fixated on inflation (even if there are short-term tariff impacts, they are being set aside), but is focusing on employment and growth. For us, this is actually a good signal—once the liquidity increases, risk assets will be the first to benefit.

History can also serve as a reference. After the last sudden turn by the Federal Reserve in 2024, Bitcoin surged about 40% in three months. If the pace really accelerates this time, the flow of funds will be even more aggressive than people think, especially for institutions, which often act much faster than retail investors.

Before the policy is truly implemented, the market may still experience several rounds of repeated washouts, so don’t rush in during the news vacuum period. A smarter approach is to prepare your positions in advance, enter the market in batches to prevent missing out, and once clear signals emerge, increase your positions accordingly. The ones that run fast are always the institutions, so to avoid missing opportunities and key information, hit follow, and I will share my thoughts on important news at the first moment..#加密市场回调