October 1st BTC Detailed Breakdown
Golden September, Silver October! Happy National Day to everyone! October is when the big cake is at its strongest!
The afternoon surge was due to the 'Little Non-Farm' report showing employment numbers lower than expected, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September's ADP, marking the largest drop since March 2023, which was below the market expectation of 50,000. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell more than 3 basis points after the ADP data was released, to 4.117%. After the ADP report was released, traders increased their bets on two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year!
Bitcoin has successfully stabilized at a key position on the daily level, with the upward momentum faster than expected. The current price has broken through $114,000, marking the confirmation of the end of the previous phase of adjustment.
Cycle Breakdown
Weekly Level:
The overall trend structure remains robust, requiring continuous attention to fundamental developments. It is expected to continue probing upwards during the day, and after the current adjustment phase ends, a new upward cycle is expected to begin.
Daily Level:
Both bulls and bears are engaged in fierce competition, with prices stabilizing and rebounding after hitting a low of 112600, ultimately closing above the 114000 mark, indicating that there is certain buying support in this area. Technical indicators show positive changes: the daily MACD bearish momentum continues to shrink, suggesting that the downward pressure is gradually weakening, and there is still some rebound space above.
4-Hour Level:
The four-hour MACD bullish momentum has also contracted, indicating a lack of short-term upward momentum. The market is currently in a consolidation phase before a directional choice, and it is recommended to primarily focus on short positions after a rebound at high levels during the day.
Key Positions
Upper Pressure: 116100– 116700
Lower Support: 112500 – 111500
