阿江ber
保持学习｜合约交流行情分析｜分享市场看法｜web3实习生一枚｜行情走到哪看到哪｜用庄家的思维理解市场
35 Following
5.6K+ Followers
754 Liked
13 Shared
All
Quotes
Live
PINNED
See original
BTC Long Cycle Analysis (Viewing the Market from the Dealer's Perspective)
Although we cannot precisely know the dealer's current building timing, historical cycle analysis allows us to infer the approximate timing of their building and selling!
Assuming the dealer's comprehensive cost (initial position + wash + fees) is 20% higher than the initial average buying price, and when selling due to price decline, the actual selling average is 15% lower than the maximum increase, then it must be ensured that: maximum increase - 15% ≥ cost (initial price + 20%), that is: maximum increase ≥ initial price × (1 + 20% + 15% + potential risk premium) ≈ 60%
In addition, the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the dealer needs to reserve space to cope with sudden risks (such as unfavorable policies, market crashes), so the actual required increase may be higher (60%-100% or even more). The need for a 60% increase for the dealer to profit is a comprehensive consideration of various costs (impact costs, fees, slippage, market risks) during the processes of building positions, washing, and selling. The increase must cover the full-process costs of building positions, washing, and selling, while also reserving buffer space to deal with uncertainties. For retail investors, understanding this logic can help us judge the dealer's operation cycle, avoiding premature sales during the early stage of a price surge or buying at high levels.
Assuming the dealer's comprehensive cost (initial position + wash + fees) is 20% higher than the initial average buying price, and when selling due to price decline, the actual selling average is 15% lower than the maximum increase, then it must be ensured that: maximum increase - 15% ≥ cost (initial price + 20%), that is: maximum increase ≥ initial price × (1 + 20% + 15% + potential risk premium) ≈ 60%
In addition, the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the dealer needs to reserve space to cope with sudden risks (such as unfavorable policies, market crashes), so the actual required increase may be higher (60%-100% or even more). The need for a 60% increase for the dealer to profit is a comprehensive consideration of various costs (impact costs, fees, slippage, market risks) during the processes of building positions, washing, and selling. The increase must cover the full-process costs of building positions, washing, and selling, while also reserving buffer space to deal with uncertainties. For retail investors, understanding this logic can help us judge the dealer's operation cycle, avoiding premature sales during the early stage of a price surge or buying at high levels.
See original
Did anyone eat meat after watching the live stream!!!
See original
December 9
Market Trends
BTC fluctuates, altcoins rebound. The market experiences wide fluctuations. MicroStrategy continued to increase its BTC holdings last week, while BlackRock continued to sell.
U.S. stocks fell, and the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a new high in over two months. Hassett's latest speech did not signal expectations of dovishness, and market expectations for the Fed's easing actions next year have declined.
Market Highlights
1. The stablecoin public chain #stable experienced a significant drop in issuance, went up on BN Alpha, with a market value of $2 billion still higher than that of the same track's XPL.
2. Privacy coin #zec rebounded significantly, showing a trend opposite to BTC.
3. Bankruptcy coins LUNA, LUNC, and others surged as the founder's trial is set for December 11.
4. The public chain ETH rebounded, showing stronger performance than BTC. A staking ETF will be launched soon.
Market Trends
BTC fluctuates, altcoins rebound. The market experiences wide fluctuations. MicroStrategy continued to increase its BTC holdings last week, while BlackRock continued to sell.
U.S. stocks fell, and the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a new high in over two months. Hassett's latest speech did not signal expectations of dovishness, and market expectations for the Fed's easing actions next year have declined.
Market Highlights
1. The stablecoin public chain #stable experienced a significant drop in issuance, went up on BN Alpha, with a market value of $2 billion still higher than that of the same track's XPL.
2. Privacy coin #zec rebounded significantly, showing a trend opposite to BTC.
3. Bankruptcy coins LUNA, LUNC, and others surged as the founder's trial is set for December 11.
4. The public chain ETH rebounded, showing stronger performance than BTC. A staking ETF will be launched soon.
See original
November 30 ETH
Market Trend Analysis
Following Bitcoin's volatile movements, a false breakout similar to the one two days ago has occurred, likely creating a bear trap, accumulating short positions. If I were the market maker, I would continue to push upward after accumulating a certain amount of funds in the shorts, trapping the funds in the bear trap. #ETH走势分析
Technical Patterns
Market momentum is weakening (be cautious of potential bear traps)
Key support levels are showing resilience, accumulating upward momentum
Key Events
December 3 #Fusaka network upgrade becomes a potential catalyst
Weekly and monthly closing days may amplify volatility
Key Levels
Support: 2970
Resistance: 3050, 3100#加密市场反弹
Market Trend Analysis
Following Bitcoin's volatile movements, a false breakout similar to the one two days ago has occurred, likely creating a bear trap, accumulating short positions. If I were the market maker, I would continue to push upward after accumulating a certain amount of funds in the shorts, trapping the funds in the bear trap. #ETH走势分析
Technical Patterns
Market momentum is weakening (be cautious of potential bear traps)
Key support levels are showing resilience, accumulating upward momentum
Key Events
December 3 #Fusaka network upgrade becomes a potential catalyst
Weekly and monthly closing days may amplify volatility
Key Levels
Support: 2970
Resistance: 3050, 3100#加密市场反弹
See original
November 30 BTC
Overall Judgment
Yesterday, the market had limited fluctuations, but today, as both a Sunday and the end of the month, the weekly and monthly lines will close simultaneously. Despite being the weekend, the market volatility is expected to significantly increase, and the range will expand. It is necessary to avoid the narrow fluctuation mindset of yesterday, as there is a high probability of a bullish counterattack; yesterday was an extreme downward pressure. The technical aspect shows that the 8-hour and shorter cycles have all reached the bottom area, providing conditions for a bullish counterattack, while the 12 and 24-hour cycles are in a neutral position, requiring momentum to confirm the direction.
Market Sentiment
1. Data shows that short-term investors are experiencing losses, indicating some selling pressure in the market.
2. The expectation of #美联储降息 provides potential liquidity support for the market.
Insufficient liquidity over the weekend means that the current market liquidity is weak, which implies that even small amounts of capital could lead to significant price fluctuations, amplifying trading risks. #BTC走势分析
Cycle Breakdown
Weekly Level
The overall trend structure remains stable. As expectations for interest rate cuts in December continue to weaken, it is necessary to continue monitoring changes in the fundamentals. It is expected to show a fluctuating upward trend during the day.
Daily Level
The candlestick forms long upper and lower shadows, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears, currently in a stage of consolidation, with direction yet to be clarified.
4-Hour Level
Market momentum has weakened, and there is a demand for technical adjustments. Overall fluctuations over the weekend are limited.
Key Positions
Upper Pressure: 93000 - 94000
Lower Support: 89000 - 88000#加密市场反弹
Overall Judgment
Yesterday, the market had limited fluctuations, but today, as both a Sunday and the end of the month, the weekly and monthly lines will close simultaneously. Despite being the weekend, the market volatility is expected to significantly increase, and the range will expand. It is necessary to avoid the narrow fluctuation mindset of yesterday, as there is a high probability of a bullish counterattack; yesterday was an extreme downward pressure. The technical aspect shows that the 8-hour and shorter cycles have all reached the bottom area, providing conditions for a bullish counterattack, while the 12 and 24-hour cycles are in a neutral position, requiring momentum to confirm the direction.
Market Sentiment
1. Data shows that short-term investors are experiencing losses, indicating some selling pressure in the market.
2. The expectation of #美联储降息 provides potential liquidity support for the market.
Insufficient liquidity over the weekend means that the current market liquidity is weak, which implies that even small amounts of capital could lead to significant price fluctuations, amplifying trading risks. #BTC走势分析
Cycle Breakdown
Weekly Level
The overall trend structure remains stable. As expectations for interest rate cuts in December continue to weaken, it is necessary to continue monitoring changes in the fundamentals. It is expected to show a fluctuating upward trend during the day.
Daily Level
The candlestick forms long upper and lower shadows, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears, currently in a stage of consolidation, with direction yet to be clarified.
4-Hour Level
Market momentum has weakened, and there is a demand for technical adjustments. Overall fluctuations over the weekend are limited.
Key Positions
Upper Pressure: 93000 - 94000
Lower Support: 89000 - 88000#加密市场反弹
See original
November 26
Market Trends
BTC fluctuates, altcoins rise broadly. ETH/BTC#汇率 reverses.
U.S. stocks rebound, economic data favorable for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December, combined with progress on the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Google replaces NVIDIA as the new AI leader.
Market Highlights
1. New coin #MON surges, nearing a double. Monad is a high-performance public chain, Arthur Hayes calls it out.
2. #l2 's mega ETH chain IPO is fully subscribed. The project redefines the upper limits of L2 with a performance vision of 100,000 TPS + millisecond-level latency, developed by a Chinese team, with investment from Vitalik Buterin.
3. Small-cap Chinese meme on BN Alpha, #恶俗企鹅 and BNB holders. BN wallet launches on-chain U.S. stocks.
Market Trends
BTC fluctuates, altcoins rise broadly. ETH/BTC#汇率 reverses.
U.S. stocks rebound, economic data favorable for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December, combined with progress on the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Google replaces NVIDIA as the new AI leader.
Market Highlights
1. New coin #MON surges, nearing a double. Monad is a high-performance public chain, Arthur Hayes calls it out.
2. #l2 's mega ETH chain IPO is fully subscribed. The project redefines the upper limits of L2 with a performance vision of 100,000 TPS + millisecond-level latency, developed by a Chinese team, with investment from Vitalik Buterin.
3. Small-cap Chinese meme on BN Alpha, #恶俗企鹅 and BNB holders. BN wallet launches on-chain U.S. stocks.
See original
November 25
Market Trends
BTC rebounds, BTC contract rate is negative, short-term bottom. Altcoins rebound, the market's main focus is on ETH.
US stocks surge, the probability of #12月降息前景 increases to 80%. The two countries' leaders spoke, further boosting market sentiment.
Market Highlights
1. Public chain ETH rises, ETH/BTC exchange rate reverses. Stablecoins #ENA , #usual , and others follow suit.
2. Public chain SOL rebounds, the meme's #Pippin experiences wild fluctuations, with speculators taking profits.
3. Public chain MON briefly falls below issue price, listed on UPBIT and Coinbase, with a market cap of $3.5 billion; the last round of financing valued it at $3 billion. Bonk's bonad.fun goes live on the MONAD public chain.
Market Trends
BTC rebounds, BTC contract rate is negative, short-term bottom. Altcoins rebound, the market's main focus is on ETH.
US stocks surge, the probability of #12月降息前景 increases to 80%. The two countries' leaders spoke, further boosting market sentiment.
Market Highlights
1. Public chain ETH rises, ETH/BTC exchange rate reverses. Stablecoins #ENA , #usual , and others follow suit.
2. Public chain SOL rebounds, the meme's #Pippin experiences wild fluctuations, with speculators taking profits.
3. Public chain MON briefly falls below issue price, listed on UPBIT and Coinbase, with a market cap of $3.5 billion; the last round of financing valued it at $3 billion. Bonk's bonad.fun goes live on the MONAD public chain.
See original
November 24 BTC Cycle Breakdown
Weekly Level
The overall trend structure remains relatively stable. As expectations for a rate cut in December continue to weaken, it is recommended to closely monitor changes in the fundamental dynamics. It is expected to maintain a sideways consolidation pattern during the day.
Daily Level
Prices continue to operate within the range of the box oscillation, with rebound momentum showing, but it has not yet reversed the overall downward trend. The current bearish structure has not fundamentally changed, and the overall pattern still leans towards the bears.
4-Hour Level
Showing a bullish repair trend, gradually regaining some lost ground, but always constrained by key resistance levels above, failing to form effective breakouts, with rebound strength clearly limited. It is recommended to primarily operate by placing short positions as prices rebound to high levels. #BTC走势分析
Key Positions
Upper Pressure: 88500 - 89500
Lower Support: 85000 - 84000
Operation Suggestions
Consider placing short positions when prices rebound to the pressure area near 88500-89500, and if it breaks down below the support range of 85000-84000, it can follow the trend.
Weekly Level
The overall trend structure remains relatively stable. As expectations for a rate cut in December continue to weaken, it is recommended to closely monitor changes in the fundamental dynamics. It is expected to maintain a sideways consolidation pattern during the day.
Daily Level
Prices continue to operate within the range of the box oscillation, with rebound momentum showing, but it has not yet reversed the overall downward trend. The current bearish structure has not fundamentally changed, and the overall pattern still leans towards the bears.
4-Hour Level
Showing a bullish repair trend, gradually regaining some lost ground, but always constrained by key resistance levels above, failing to form effective breakouts, with rebound strength clearly limited. It is recommended to primarily operate by placing short positions as prices rebound to high levels. #BTC走势分析
Key Positions
Upper Pressure: 88500 - 89500
Lower Support: 85000 - 84000
Operation Suggestions
Consider placing short positions when prices rebound to the pressure area near 88500-89500, and if it breaks down below the support range of 85000-84000, it can follow the trend.
See original
November 24
Market Trends
BTC rebounds, altcoins rebound. BTC#合约费率 is negative, or may be the short-term bottom at #情绪周期 .
US stocks rebound, with a greater than 50% chance of a rate cut in December.
Market Highlights
1. Small coin #tnsr is being promoted. The Tensor Foundation acquired the Tensor Marketplace from Tensor Labs, increasing the portion of market fees entering the treasury from 50% to 100%, and 22% of the tokens from labs have been burned.
2. Privacy coin #zec performs strongly, counter to the market, with a shorting fee rate of -30%.
3. Old coin #BCH rises, as the US secretly investigates mining giant Bitmain, and Yilihua makes a purchase.
4. Perpetual leader Hype unlocks $320 million worth of tokens this week.
Market Trends
BTC rebounds, altcoins rebound. BTC#合约费率 is negative, or may be the short-term bottom at #情绪周期 .
US stocks rebound, with a greater than 50% chance of a rate cut in December.
Market Highlights
1. Small coin #tnsr is being promoted. The Tensor Foundation acquired the Tensor Marketplace from Tensor Labs, increasing the portion of market fees entering the treasury from 50% to 100%, and 22% of the tokens from labs have been burned.
2. Privacy coin #zec performs strongly, counter to the market, with a shorting fee rate of -30%.
3. Old coin #BCH rises, as the US secretly investigates mining giant Bitmain, and Yilihua makes a purchase.
4. Perpetual leader Hype unlocks $320 million worth of tokens this week.
See original
November 20th BTC
Weekly Level
The overall trend structure remains robust. As the expectation for interest rate cuts in December continues to cool, #美国停摆结束 is nearing its end, coupled with Trump's proposal of a policy expectation to issue $2,000 dividends to each low-income individual, the market's fundamentals are still in dynamic change. It is expected to continue in a fluctuating pattern during the day, and it is recommended to keep an eye on macro trends.
Daily Level
The current structure is still dominated by bears, and recent rebounds are merely technical corrections after significant declines, with no strong buying pressure entering. The price has not been able to break through the previous high point, and the market structure has not undergone substantial changes. As long as the price remains below 96,000, the overall rhythm continues to lean towards bearish.
4-Hour Level
After six consecutive bearish candles, there has been a slight rebound, but the rebound strength is weak, and the price has consistently failed to effectively break through the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that resistance above remains significant. The overall structure maintains a weak trend.
Key Levels
Upper Pressure: 93,000 - 94,000
Lower Support: 88,500 - 87,500
Operational Suggestions
Consider setting up short positions when the price rebounds to the pressure zone near 93,000–94,000; if it breaks down below the support range of 88,500–87,500, further follow-up can be taken.
#BTC走势分析 #非农就业数据
Weekly Level
The overall trend structure remains robust. As the expectation for interest rate cuts in December continues to cool, #美国停摆结束 is nearing its end, coupled with Trump's proposal of a policy expectation to issue $2,000 dividends to each low-income individual, the market's fundamentals are still in dynamic change. It is expected to continue in a fluctuating pattern during the day, and it is recommended to keep an eye on macro trends.
Daily Level
The current structure is still dominated by bears, and recent rebounds are merely technical corrections after significant declines, with no strong buying pressure entering. The price has not been able to break through the previous high point, and the market structure has not undergone substantial changes. As long as the price remains below 96,000, the overall rhythm continues to lean towards bearish.
4-Hour Level
After six consecutive bearish candles, there has been a slight rebound, but the rebound strength is weak, and the price has consistently failed to effectively break through the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that resistance above remains significant. The overall structure maintains a weak trend.
Key Levels
Upper Pressure: 93,000 - 94,000
Lower Support: 88,500 - 87,500
Operational Suggestions
Consider setting up short positions when the price rebounds to the pressure zone near 93,000–94,000; if it breaks down below the support range of 88,500–87,500, further follow-up can be taken.
#BTC走势分析 #非农就业数据
See original
November 20
Market Trends
BTC continues to decline, altcoins are generally down. #贝莱德基金 continues to sell BTC and ETH. The main focus of the market revolves around #隐私币 .
U.S. stocks rebounded, NVIDIA's performance exceeded expectations. The U.S. dollar index rose, and the probability of a rate cut in December plummeted to 31%.
2. Market Hotspots:
1. Privacy concepts such as #zec , #strk , #ZK are rising. ETH has launched the latest privacy upgrade, Kohaku. Privacy is a necessity similar to Swiss banks, combating AI big data scrutiny, and some gray market demand for BTC is flowing into privacy coins. The three original intentions of BTC: 1) Compliance instead of fiat currency (currently there are stablecoins like USDT, USDC, etc.), 2) Scalability (currently there are public chains like ETH, SOL, etc.), 3) Privacy and resistance to scrutiny (currently only ZEC can be used). The first two original intentions are led by projects with market capitalizations in the hundreds of billions of dollars, Tether has a market cap of $500 billion, and ETH reached a high of $500 billion, while privacy is the only area that has not been significantly developed.
2. The market cap of high-performance public chain Monad fell from $5 billion to $3.5 billion.
Market Trends
BTC continues to decline, altcoins are generally down. #贝莱德基金 continues to sell BTC and ETH. The main focus of the market revolves around #隐私币 .
U.S. stocks rebounded, NVIDIA's performance exceeded expectations. The U.S. dollar index rose, and the probability of a rate cut in December plummeted to 31%.
2. Market Hotspots:
1. Privacy concepts such as #zec , #strk , #ZK are rising. ETH has launched the latest privacy upgrade, Kohaku. Privacy is a necessity similar to Swiss banks, combating AI big data scrutiny, and some gray market demand for BTC is flowing into privacy coins. The three original intentions of BTC: 1) Compliance instead of fiat currency (currently there are stablecoins like USDT, USDC, etc.), 2) Scalability (currently there are public chains like ETH, SOL, etc.), 3) Privacy and resistance to scrutiny (currently only ZEC can be used). The first two original intentions are led by projects with market capitalizations in the hundreds of billions of dollars, Tether has a market cap of $500 billion, and ETH reached a high of $500 billion, while privacy is the only area that has not been significantly developed.
2. The market cap of high-performance public chain Monad fell from $5 billion to $3.5 billion.
See original
November 18th ETH
The market has recently been plagued by continuous sell-offs. After extreme liquidation of long positions, the market is brewing a rebound. Every time confidence is lost, it is accompanied by the birth of opportunities. The bearish trend on the weekly and monthly charts remains unchanged. Pay attention to the movements of Bitcoin and the old man.
Market Judgement
Follow the movements of Bitcoin. Although whales are supporting the altcoins, the continuous decline of Bitcoin will also lead to a passive drop in altcoins, further amplifying emotional responses.
Technical Features
The moving average system shows a bearish arrangement, with prices constrained below key resistance levels.
RSI has entered the oversold area, indicating a need for technical recovery.
A momentum divergence signal has appeared on the daily chart.
The daily chart gap of #cme has not been filled like Bitcoin, and the current retracement level can focus on the weekly support around 2830-2750, which is also the CME gap position. If this level is completely broken, we can directly look at the 2500 level.
Key Levels
Support: 2940-2900
Resistance: 3200-3250
Operation Suggestion: Focus on the transmission effect of #比特币走势 and #ETH走势分析 .
The market has recently been plagued by continuous sell-offs. After extreme liquidation of long positions, the market is brewing a rebound. Every time confidence is lost, it is accompanied by the birth of opportunities. The bearish trend on the weekly and monthly charts remains unchanged. Pay attention to the movements of Bitcoin and the old man.
Market Judgement
Follow the movements of Bitcoin. Although whales are supporting the altcoins, the continuous decline of Bitcoin will also lead to a passive drop in altcoins, further amplifying emotional responses.
Technical Features
The moving average system shows a bearish arrangement, with prices constrained below key resistance levels.
RSI has entered the oversold area, indicating a need for technical recovery.
A momentum divergence signal has appeared on the daily chart.
The daily chart gap of #cme has not been filled like Bitcoin, and the current retracement level can focus on the weekly support around 2830-2750, which is also the CME gap position. If this level is completely broken, we can directly look at the 2500 level.
Key Levels
Support: 2940-2900
Resistance: 3200-3250
Operation Suggestion: Focus on the transmission effect of #比特币走势 and #ETH走势分析 .
See original
November 18 BTC
The market is cold, and market sentiment has reached 11 (extreme fear), often experiencing sudden drops at midnight. There has been a constant influx of bad news. The daily chart has entered the bottom phase, and shorting below 90,000 is not an ideal choice. After extreme liquidation of longs, the market will brew a rebound. Every time confidence is lost, it is accompanied by the birth of opportunities. The bearish trend on the weekly and monthly charts remains unchanged. The daily chart is in the late bearish phase and early bullish phase, in a stage where a little sunshine can make a big difference. Attention should be paid to the movements of Mr. Pu.
Trend Judgment
The bottom range is fluctuating, with two possible paths — either a consolidation at the bottom or a quick drop followed by a V-shaped reversal.
Technical Features
Short-term moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, prices have broken below the middle Bollinger Band and are moving towards the lower band.
RSI is approaching the oversold area, and short-term selling pressure may gradually weaken.
Capital has shown a net outflow for a whole week.
Currently, a better point is (Figure 2) that today has filled the CME gap at the daily level.
Key Positions:
Support: 88,000
Resistance: 95,000
Operational Suggestions: Be cautious in oversold areas when shorting, waiting for stabilization signals.
Cycle Breakdown
Weekly Level
The overall structure is still robust, but there are changes in the fundamentals: #12月降息悬了 expectations continue to weaken, #美国停摆 is nearing its end. Trump's proposal of “issuing a $2,000 bonus to each non-high-income individual” is worth noting. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating downward pattern during the day, and it is suggested to continue tracking the evolution of the macro environment.
Daily Level
Prices have broken below the key support of the middle and lower Bollinger Bands, and the Bollinger Band channel shows a downward opening trend, indicating that the downtrend may continue. Auxiliary indicators are also weakening: MACD shows that bearish momentum continues to strengthen, and RSI has entered the oversold range, reflecting increased market panic and significant selling pressure.
4-Hour Level
The candlestick chart shows a continuous arrangement of bearish candles, with prices steadily declining along the moving average system. The bullish counterattack is continuously suppressed, failing to organize an effective rebound, and the bears hold absolute dominance. #加密市场回调 #BTC走势分析
The market is cold, and market sentiment has reached 11 (extreme fear), often experiencing sudden drops at midnight. There has been a constant influx of bad news. The daily chart has entered the bottom phase, and shorting below 90,000 is not an ideal choice. After extreme liquidation of longs, the market will brew a rebound. Every time confidence is lost, it is accompanied by the birth of opportunities. The bearish trend on the weekly and monthly charts remains unchanged. The daily chart is in the late bearish phase and early bullish phase, in a stage where a little sunshine can make a big difference. Attention should be paid to the movements of Mr. Pu.
Trend Judgment
The bottom range is fluctuating, with two possible paths — either a consolidation at the bottom or a quick drop followed by a V-shaped reversal.
Technical Features
Short-term moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, prices have broken below the middle Bollinger Band and are moving towards the lower band.
RSI is approaching the oversold area, and short-term selling pressure may gradually weaken.
Capital has shown a net outflow for a whole week.
Currently, a better point is (Figure 2) that today has filled the CME gap at the daily level.
Key Positions:
Support: 88,000
Resistance: 95,000
Operational Suggestions: Be cautious in oversold areas when shorting, waiting for stabilization signals.
Cycle Breakdown
Weekly Level
The overall structure is still robust, but there are changes in the fundamentals: #12月降息悬了 expectations continue to weaken, #美国停摆 is nearing its end. Trump's proposal of “issuing a $2,000 bonus to each non-high-income individual” is worth noting. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating downward pattern during the day, and it is suggested to continue tracking the evolution of the macro environment.
Daily Level
Prices have broken below the key support of the middle and lower Bollinger Bands, and the Bollinger Band channel shows a downward opening trend, indicating that the downtrend may continue. Auxiliary indicators are also weakening: MACD shows that bearish momentum continues to strengthen, and RSI has entered the oversold range, reflecting increased market panic and significant selling pressure.
4-Hour Level
The candlestick chart shows a continuous arrangement of bearish candles, with prices steadily declining along the moving average system. The bullish counterattack is continuously suppressed, failing to organize an effective rebound, and the bears hold absolute dominance. #加密市场回调 #BTC走势分析
See original
November 18
Market Trends
BTC continues to decline, altcoins are broadly falling. Large institution #贝莱德基金 sold $600 million in BTC and ETH, and Solana's largest US stock treasury sold $200 million #solana .
US stocks continue to decline.
Market Highlights
1. Privacy coins Zen, Dusk, Mina, etc. are rebounding. #zen is on OK.
2. Payment #OOB is rising, which is a crypto payment for stablecoin Tether investment #Oobit , with a market value of $400 million.
Market Trends
BTC continues to decline, altcoins are broadly falling. Large institution #贝莱德基金 sold $600 million in BTC and ETH, and Solana's largest US stock treasury sold $200 million #solana .
US stocks continue to decline.
Market Highlights
1. Privacy coins Zen, Dusk, Mina, etc. are rebounding. #zen is on OK.
2. Payment #OOB is rising, which is a crypto payment for stablecoin Tether investment #Oobit , with a market value of $400 million.
See original
November 14
Market Trends
BTC continues to decline, altcoins are broadly falling. BTC's annual growth rate is zero, long-term holders and miners are continuously selling.
U.S. stocks have broken down, with the probability of December #不降息还要跌 increasing. A-shares continue to hit historical highs.
Market Highlights
1. On Binance, #bank and #MET , the exchange effect is poor. Bank is part of the BTC ecosystem, and Met is a leading DEX market maker on the Solana chain.
2. The Solana chain #DUPE has surged significantly, becoming an on-chain e-commerce platform, currently ranking among the top few in the Apple free software list.
3. The stablecoin public chain Stable's mainnet will be launched, with market expectations for token issuance by the end of November. In the same sector, XPL has a market value of $2.5 billion, and Circle's stablecoin public chain ARC also plans to issue tokens. ARC plans to launch the mainnet in 2026, which will reduce payment network CPN costs by 30%.
4. U.S. stocks' stablecoin #Circle had good performance in the third quarter report, but there is short-term pressure from unlocks. The circulation of USDC has reached $74 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 110% (surpassing the industry’s 59% growth rate). Market share has reached 29%, an increase of 6% year-on-year. It is worth noting that last year's same period saw a duopoly of USDT+USDC market share at 76%, while this year it is 81%. The CPN payment network has 29 institutions participating, with 55 under review, and an annual trading volume of $3.4 billion (mainly for cross-border payments). The growth of USDC's share mainly comes from three areas: cross-border payments 35%, traditional financial investments 25%, and emerging market consumption 20%. Q3 revenue reached $740 million, a year-on-year increase of 66%; net profit was $214 million (approximately $100 million after non-recurring items), a year-on-year growth of 202%. Circle’s operating profit after non-recurring items is approximately $400 million annually, with a current market value of $21 billion, about 50 times PE. The market expects long-term growth at 30%.
Market Trends
BTC continues to decline, altcoins are broadly falling. BTC's annual growth rate is zero, long-term holders and miners are continuously selling.
U.S. stocks have broken down, with the probability of December #不降息还要跌 increasing. A-shares continue to hit historical highs.
Market Highlights
1. On Binance, #bank and #MET , the exchange effect is poor. Bank is part of the BTC ecosystem, and Met is a leading DEX market maker on the Solana chain.
2. The Solana chain #DUPE has surged significantly, becoming an on-chain e-commerce platform, currently ranking among the top few in the Apple free software list.
3. The stablecoin public chain Stable's mainnet will be launched, with market expectations for token issuance by the end of November. In the same sector, XPL has a market value of $2.5 billion, and Circle's stablecoin public chain ARC also plans to issue tokens. ARC plans to launch the mainnet in 2026, which will reduce payment network CPN costs by 30%.
4. U.S. stocks' stablecoin #Circle had good performance in the third quarter report, but there is short-term pressure from unlocks. The circulation of USDC has reached $74 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 110% (surpassing the industry’s 59% growth rate). Market share has reached 29%, an increase of 6% year-on-year. It is worth noting that last year's same period saw a duopoly of USDT+USDC market share at 76%, while this year it is 81%. The CPN payment network has 29 institutions participating, with 55 under review, and an annual trading volume of $3.4 billion (mainly for cross-border payments). The growth of USDC's share mainly comes from three areas: cross-border payments 35%, traditional financial investments 25%, and emerging market consumption 20%. Q3 revenue reached $740 million, a year-on-year increase of 66%; net profit was $214 million (approximately $100 million after non-recurring items), a year-on-year growth of 202%. Circle’s operating profit after non-recurring items is approximately $400 million annually, with a current market value of $21 billion, about 50 times PE. The market expects long-term growth at 30%.
See original
November 12 BTC
Market fatigue continues to show, although there are occasional large funds increasing their bullish positions, it is still difficult to reverse the overall weak pattern. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both struggling at key weekly positions, with a large bearish candle appearing in the daily timeframe during the bullish cycle, and the upward momentum is clearly exhausted. On the weekly level, bears hold an absolute advantage; if today cannot recover yesterday's decline with a large bullish candle, the trend may officially turn bearish.
Market Analysis
Weak fluctuations, short-term recovery expected. Current retail investor sentiment is extremely fearful, which is often seen as a contrarian indicator and may suggest that prices are about to rebound. However, at the same time, the selling pressure from short-term holders and profit-taking from long-term holders also adds uncertainty to the market. There is a gap filling risk in the CME range of 103100-104000 #美国结束政府停摆
Market fatigue continues to show, although there are occasional large funds increasing their bullish positions, it is still difficult to reverse the overall weak pattern. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both struggling at key weekly positions, with a large bearish candle appearing in the daily timeframe during the bullish cycle, and the upward momentum is clearly exhausted. On the weekly level, bears hold an absolute advantage; if today cannot recover yesterday's decline with a large bullish candle, the trend may officially turn bearish.
Market Analysis
Weak fluctuations, short-term recovery expected. Current retail investor sentiment is extremely fearful, which is often seen as a contrarian indicator and may suggest that prices are about to rebound. However, at the same time, the selling pressure from short-term holders and profit-taking from long-term holders also adds uncertainty to the market. There is a gap filling risk in the CME range of 103100-104000 #美国结束政府停摆
See original
November 12
Market Trends
BTC continues to decline, altcoins are broadly down. Market liquidity is drying up.
US stocks are volatile, gold is falling.
Market Highlights
1. BN's listing #ALLOUSDT is a decentralized AI network, utilizing Cosmos technology, an old project from 2019.
2. PERP's Aster performs strongly, CZ has been holding since buying at 0.9.
Market Trends
BTC continues to decline, altcoins are broadly down. Market liquidity is drying up.
US stocks are volatile, gold is falling.
Market Highlights
1. BN's listing #ALLOUSDT is a decentralized AI network, utilizing Cosmos technology, an old project from 2019.
2. PERP's Aster performs strongly, CZ has been holding since buying at 0.9.
See original
November 10th BTC
Cycle Dissection
Weekly Level
The market structure remains robust. With the end of #美国政府停摆 , positive changes have appeared in the market fundamentals. Although expectations for #12月降息 have weakened, Trump's proposal to distribute $2000 to each individual in the low-income group has significantly boosted market confidence. Ongoing attention is needed on the implementation of policies and changes in capital flow.
Daily Level
After experiencing four consecutive trading days of wide fluctuations, the price has successfully stabilized above the lower Bollinger Band. After multiple effective downward tests of support, a rebound structure has currently formed. It is important to clarify that until the price effectively recovers the key level of $110,000, the current movement is still defined as a technical rebound, and a trend reversal has not yet formed; overall downward pressure has not been completely alleviated.
4-Hour Level
Showing a strong one-sided upward trend! The price has surged to create a recent new high, effectively breaking through the upper Bollinger Band resistance and continuously overcoming several key technical resistance levels throughout the day. Bullish momentum is strong, and the upper space has completely opened up, with the overall trend clearly shifting to a bullish pattern.
Key Positions
Upper Resistance: 107000 - 108000
Lower Support: 104000 - 103000#BTC走势分析
Cycle Dissection
Weekly Level
The market structure remains robust. With the end of #美国政府停摆 , positive changes have appeared in the market fundamentals. Although expectations for #12月降息 have weakened, Trump's proposal to distribute $2000 to each individual in the low-income group has significantly boosted market confidence. Ongoing attention is needed on the implementation of policies and changes in capital flow.
Daily Level
After experiencing four consecutive trading days of wide fluctuations, the price has successfully stabilized above the lower Bollinger Band. After multiple effective downward tests of support, a rebound structure has currently formed. It is important to clarify that until the price effectively recovers the key level of $110,000, the current movement is still defined as a technical rebound, and a trend reversal has not yet formed; overall downward pressure has not been completely alleviated.
4-Hour Level
Showing a strong one-sided upward trend! The price has surged to create a recent new high, effectively breaking through the upper Bollinger Band resistance and continuously overcoming several key technical resistance levels throughout the day. Bullish momentum is strong, and the upper space has completely opened up, with the overall trend clearly shifting to a bullish pattern.
Key Positions
Upper Resistance: 107000 - 108000
Lower Support: 104000 - 103000#BTC走势分析
See original
November 10
Market Trends
BTC rebounds, altcoins fluctuate. Market liquidity is insufficient, not supporting a broad rise, only supporting individual hotspots.
US stock weekly broke, #美国政府停摆 has been 40 days, polymarket predicts a 50% probability of opening next week.
Market Hotspots
1. Public chain ETH rises, outperforming BTC. This drives many old coins to exhibit a 'dead cat bounce' trend, with a significant rebound from oversold conditions.
2. Privacy coin #zec rises, with short-term USDT trading volume exceeding BTC and ETH. ZEC privacy pool + Near's intention bridge has better privacy effects than Monero and Tornado Cash, and may expand to other chains like Hype in the future. It is the optimal choice for U.S. capital trading to avoid taxes and transfer gray industry, with substantial external real demand.
3. The foundational chain and gaming sector surge, this is the AI launch platform improving its mechanism, and the foundational chain has recent expectations of issuing tokens. The foundational chain rises in 10 seconds. This combines x402 and the prediction market, similar to rolling out new stocks to the secondary market for arbitrage, but is expected to be not long-lasting.
Market Trends
BTC rebounds, altcoins fluctuate. Market liquidity is insufficient, not supporting a broad rise, only supporting individual hotspots.
US stock weekly broke, #美国政府停摆 has been 40 days, polymarket predicts a 50% probability of opening next week.
Market Hotspots
1. Public chain ETH rises, outperforming BTC. This drives many old coins to exhibit a 'dead cat bounce' trend, with a significant rebound from oversold conditions.
2. Privacy coin #zec rises, with short-term USDT trading volume exceeding BTC and ETH. ZEC privacy pool + Near's intention bridge has better privacy effects than Monero and Tornado Cash, and may expand to other chains like Hype in the future. It is the optimal choice for U.S. capital trading to avoid taxes and transfer gray industry, with substantial external real demand.
3. The foundational chain and gaming sector surge, this is the AI launch platform improving its mechanism, and the foundational chain has recent expectations of issuing tokens. The foundational chain rises in 10 seconds. This combines x402 and the prediction market, similar to rolling out new stocks to the secondary market for arbitrage, but is expected to be not long-lasting.
Login to explore more contents