As of October 1, 2025, the federal government of the United States found itself in a situation known as a shutdown - a partial closure caused by Congress's inability to agree on a budget. For financial markets, such events are not new: over the past decades, the United States has experienced several similar crises. However, the current case is noteworthy because it coincides with a period of heightened attention to the cryptocurrency market, record prices of Bitcoin, and expectations of new institutional products.
The shutdown affected about 800,000 federal employees, many agencies switched to a reduced mode, and the publication of key macroeconomic data was at risk of disruption. This creates an effect of information vacuum: markets lose familiar benchmarks, and investors begin to look for alternative sources of stability and capital preservation. In such an environment, cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, find themselves in the spotlight.
Current market state
As of October 4, 2025:
The global capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is approximately $4.18 trillion.
$BTC Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $122,300 per coin, holding in the range of $119,900 – $123,900 over the past 24 hours. The market capitalization of BTC is approaching $2.3 trillion, while the daily trading volume is about $72–76 billion.
Ethereum (ETH) is holding at $4,480–4,515. Trading activity is high: the daily trading volume reaches $38–49 billion.
The dominance of BTC is about 58%, indicating a concentration of investor attention specifically on it as 'digital gold'.
Why is the shutdown so important for the crypto market?
1. Lack of macroeconomic benchmarks
Due to the shutdown of some government agencies, such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the publication of employment and inflation reports is delayed. These data traditionally serve as key benchmarks for the Federal Reserve when making decisions on interest rates. For investors, this means one thing: uncertainty is increasing, and uncertainty almost always means increased volatility.
2. Delay in regulatory decisions
The SEC, CFTC, and other agencies regulating financial markets operate with limited resources during a shutdown. This threatens delays in reviewing applications for launching cryptocurrency ETFs, as well as in promoting legislative initiatives that could bring clarity to the regulation of digital assets. In such a situation, institutional investors tend to take a wait-and-see approach.
3. Threat to trust in the dollar
If the shutdown drags on, trust in the American financial system and the dollar as a global reserve currency may come into question. In such conditions, interest in gold and Bitcoin, which are seen as alternative safe-haven assets, increases.
Market reaction
Currently, the cryptocurrency market is demonstrating increased volatility but without signs of panic. Bitcoin is holding positions above $120,000, showing resilience to overall macroeconomic risks. Institutional players, on the contrary, are showing caution and waiting for clarity from regulators before increasing positions.
This creates a kind of balance: on one hand, crypto assets receive support due to the search for an alternative to the dollar, on the other hand, they remain under pressure due to the lack of fresh regulatory decisions.
What market leaders say
Mike Novogratz (CEO Galaxy Digital) noted that political decisions and personnel changes in Washington could radically change the pace of institutional entry into crypto. He warns: "A shutdown can slow down the approval process for cryptocurrency ETFs and delay the influx of large capital, but in the long run, this process is inevitable."
Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) remains convinced that Bitcoin serves as 'insurance' against fiscal policy mistakes. In her opinion, despite short-term turbulence, it is precisely in moments of systemic tension that digital assets demonstrate their strength.
Development scenarios
1. Brief shutdown (up to 2 weeks).
The effect is minimal: a temporary increase in volatility and a slight influx of capital into defensive assets. After the lifting of restrictions, the market will return to previous trends.
2. Medium (2–4 weeks).
Delay in ETF approvals, weakening institutional interest, increased uncertainty. The most likely scenario.
3. Prolonged (more than a month).
A serious blow to trust in the dollar, possible rise in gold and Bitcoin prices, but at the same time a decline in liquidity overall. This is a 'separation' scenario: cryptocurrency wins as an idea, but markets in general suffer.
Conclusion
A shutdown is not only an internal political crisis in the USA but also a factor of global financial turbulence. For cryptocurrencies, such events always carry a dual effect: on one hand, they increase risks and delay institutional decisions, on the other hand, they strengthen Bitcoin's role as an alternative to the traditional financial system.
At the moment, the most likely scenario appears to be a 'medium' duration shutdown. This means that the crypto market will live under conditions of increased uncertainty but will not collapse. Moreover, Bitcoin may emerge from this situation as an even more convincing candidate for the role of 'digital gold'.
Note
The material is analytical in nature and does not constitute investment advice.
