Bitcoin may be about to set a new historical record, according to Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered.
"I believe it is now ready and that BTC will register a new historical record next week and will likely hit my forecast for Q3 of $135,000 shortly thereafter," Kendrick wrote, adding that the target will be reached "one to two weeks later than expected."
Standard Chartered sees several forces driving prices up in the second half of 2025. "Inflows into ETFs and corporate purchases of BTC should surpass the level of Q2 (245,000 BTC) in Q3 and Q4," the bank stated, while developments in U.S. policy could add more momentum.
Kendrick highlighted "a potential announcement by President Trump regarding the early replacement of Fed Chair Powell and the approval of the US stablecoin bill" as catalysts.
The analyst also argued that the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle no longer applies.
"Thanks to the increase in investor flows, we believe that BTC has surpassed the previous dynamics, in which prices fell 18 months after a 'halving' cycle," he said, referring to the event in April 2024 which, in previous cycles, would imply weakness at the end of 2025.
Instead, Standard Chartered expects unstable trading at the beginning of Q4 but anticipates renewed gains.
Kendrick also pointed to the current US government shutdown as a short-term driver, noting Bitcoin's correlation with Treasury yield premiums and saying: "I suspect Bitcoin will rise throughout the shutdown."
Standard Chartered maintains a forecast of $200,000 for Bitcoin
end of the year, calling the second half of 2025 "the best of all time for Bitcoin (in terms of increase in USD)".
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