#bitcoin
📉$BTC before the “exit break”: will the market save the post-Trump?
Bitcoin enters the weekend with a damaged structure and under strong macroeconomic pressure. After the loss of key support levels, the scenario of a fall to $61,000 looks like the most logical continuation of the current movement.
🔍 Technical picture: Steps down
The market is not demonstrating a chaotic fall, but a systemic degradation of the structure. We see a clear sequence of “loss of the level - unsuccessful retest - transition below”:
• Main resistance: The level of $71,500 has turned from a solid floor into a reinforced concrete ceiling.
• Local barrier: After the loss of $68,000 and $66,900, these zones are now the primary targets for any upward rebound.
• Downward target: The next defined support channel is in the range of $61,100 - $61,700. If the bulls do not return $66,900 in the near future, the magnet of this level will work by Monday morning.
🏛 Macro and Politics: The Trump Factor
Adding to the technical negativity is pressure from bonds (the yield on 10-year Treasurys reached 4.48%) and oil prices. However, the main "joker" remains Donald Trump.
His rhetoric on Iran this week has already dictated the mood of the markets:
• "Peace" scenario: Trump's diplomatic post on social networks may provoke a short squeeze and a return to $68,000+.
• "Escalation" scenario: Intensification of rhetoric or silence against the background of high stakes will leave $BTC defenseless before the test of $61k.
⚠️ Summary for the trader:
1. Bearish: While we are below $66,900, the priority is to move to $61,700.
2. Neutral: A consolidation above $68,000 would neutralize the immediate threat of a collapse.
3. Bullish: Only a return to $71,500 would reverse the bearish pattern of recent weeks.
