I have been observing the overall market trends recently, and combined with some public data and market phenomena, I will share my personal views and operational ideas:
1. Basic judgment and position arrangement
From a technical and financial perspective, I believe Bitcoin is likely to challenge the 140,000 level in December. Currently, I can maintain a 70% position while placing a limit buy order at 117,000, accounting for 15% of the total position. This position is both an important support level and a good point for increasing holdings.
2. Two key variables that need to be closely monitored
The two most important influencing factors in the current market are the monetary policies of Japan and the United States:
• In Japan, special attention should be paid to December 19, January 23, and March 19. If the Bank of Japan chooses to raise interest rates, the market may see a correction of about 25%;
• In the U.S., the government shutdown event has instead strengthened the expectations for interest rate cuts. The market's expectation probability for an interest rate cut at the end of October has risen to 94%. More importantly, the Bitcoin spot ETF in January next year and the strategic reserve bill in March 2025 will bring substantial capital inflows to the market;
3. The funding situation continues to improve.
From public data, the inflow of funds appears quite healthy:
· The recent daily net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs is about $1.2 billion.
· The total market value of stablecoins has increased by about $6 billion in a week.
· Institutional investors have increased their holdings by about 7,000 Bitcoins in 9 days, worth about $840 million.
These data indicate that both institutional and retail funds are continuously entering the market.
4. Market sentiment and technical patterns.
· The fear and greed index is currently around 71, in the 'greed' zone, indicating that market sentiment is somewhat hot but not at extreme levels;
· From the market perspective, the dealer completed the inducement to short at the end of September and broke through the key position of $125,000 on October 1, aided by the expectation of interest rate cuts;
· Short-term support looks at $117,000. If the U.S. government reopens on October 18, it might bring about a technical correction of around 4%, but by the end of November, driven by interest rate cut expectations, the market still has upward momentum;
5. Investment strategy.
I have always believed that investment should capture opportunities that one can understand. The core logic of Bitcoin currently is the global liquidity combined with policy expectations.
From the data, the correlation between global M2 and Bitcoin prices is as high as 0.94, and the global money supply is expected to continue growing in the coming years, which provides a fundamental support for asset prices.
If Japan maintains its interest rates and the U.S. moves towards a rate-cutting cycle, then the current trend is likely to continue. If these fundamental conditions change, I will also adjust my strategy accordingly.
Investing is essentially simple; it involves understanding the big trends, positioning at the right price levels, and then maintaining patience. In the current market, I think we still need to grasp the main contradictions and ignore short-term noise.
