1. Macroeconomic and Risk Outlook:
Recent Events of Interest: Stablecoin meeting on the 21st and higher CPI forecast on the 24th, expecting the market may release negative news in advance.
Dollar Index (Dxy): At a key resistance level, undergoing adjustment.
Fear Index (Vix): It is expected that panic will need to occur again to create opportunities for the next round of bottom fishing in the cryptocurrency and stock markets.
Safe-Haven Assets (Xau/Gold): Continues to reach new highs, showing that safe-haven funds and national strategic funds are still flowing in.
2. Traditional Market Analysis:
Nasdaq (Nas): Significant rebound in pre-market, followed by a volume reduction and sideways adjustment at the start of the Asian session, seen as a natural rebound, lacking capital support, with larger expectations for subsequent adjustments.
Japanese Stocks: Maintain a bullish trend, focus on the 47700 resistance level; if broken, the adjustment may end.
3. Overview of the Cryptocurrency Market:
Bitcoin Market Cap Ratio (Btc.d): Pulled back to the middle of the box, expected to continue declining, favorable for the rebound performance of Ethereum (Eth) and altcoins.
USDT Market Cap Ratio (Usdt.d): Retesting the key position of 4.64%, temporarily looking at sideways consolidation, needs to wait for a breakthrough to clarify direction (upward breakthrough would lead to long positions). Expected to consolidate for two days before rising again.
Total Market Cap of Altcoins (Total2): Expected to pull back to $1.5\text{T}$ and stabilize, then break upwards.
Capital Inflow (Usdt.s): Continuous capital inflow.
Liquidation/Premium: Liquidation price is in the range of 4426-4642, with a premium of 300.
4. Specific Cryptocurrency Strategies:
Ethereum/Bitcoin (Ethbtc): Under pressure from the trend line, but after a pullback, it will be a good opportunity to heavily invest in Ethereum and altcoins, indicating that the altcoin season may arrive by the end of this month.
Bitcoin (Btc): The rebound strength is weak, currently in sideways consolidation, with increased risk.
Ethereum (Eth): Still in a bullish arrangement, the trend has not broken, planning to continue holding.
Altcoins: Although the rebound is acceptable, the pressure on the 4-hour chart is a hard injury. Right-side trading needs to wait for a 4-hour level breakthrough. On the operation side, strong altcoins can be chosen, but the focus should be on swing trading with a 5-minute entry.
Core Viewpoint:
The market is influenced by expectations of macro events (meetings and CPI), while traditional markets show signs of adjustment. In terms of cryptocurrency, the author believes the market focus will shift to Ethereum and altcoins (bearish on Btc.d, bullish on Ethbtc after the pullback opportunity), with Bitcoin currently showing weak rebound and dangerous oscillation. Operationally, a cautiously optimistic attitude towards altcoins is held, leaning towards swing trading after breakthroughs or stabilization after pullbacks.