Latest gold market trend analysis
After the European market opened on Tuesday, spot gold slightly rose, with prices fluctuating around $4680 per ounce. The current market for gold is crucial; on one hand, the Middle East has been in conflict for nearly six weeks, and everyone is worried about risks and wants to buy gold as a safe haven; on the other hand, the fighting is causing prices to rise, which may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain or even tighten monetary policy, which is very unfavorable for gold prices. The competition between bulls and bears is intense, and although the surface volatility is small, there is actually a complex game of war, inflation, and interest rates behind it.
On the same day, Iran directly rejected the temporary ceasefire proposal from the United States, providing a ten-point plan through Pakistan, demanding a permanent ceasefire, lifting sanctions, and proposing to open the Strait of Hormuz with a transit fee of $2 million per ship. Trump's deadline is approaching (8 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday, which is 8 AM Beijing Time on Wednesday), the expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have significantly decreased, and the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and interest rate pressure makes it difficult to judge the short-term trend of gold. Everyone should focus on this week's Federal Reserve meeting minutes and CPI data, paying attention to whether the 4600-4700 range can be broken.
Gold has been oscillating back and forth for the past couple of days, with the domestic market closed, resulting in very little fluctuation yesterday. From a daily perspective, gold still appears weak, with a possibility of decline. The strategy remains consistent with Monday: gold is currently in a volatile market, and we need to wait for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and significant data like CPI to break the range and lead to a substantial upward or downward trend. The current large range is 4500-4800; do not expect a significant trend until broken. If it drops below 4500, look down to 4350; if it breaks above 4800, look up to 5000.
The gold 4-hour chart is in a contracting range, rebounding from the low of 4100, with enough space and time. The short-term direction is being chosen, and the volatility may continue. At the beginning of the week, it's preferable to short below 4700 to watch for a pullback, with strong resistance around the 0.618 Fibonacci level near 4800, where pressure signals are already evident. In terms of action, a rebound to around 4700-4710 during Asian trading can be shorted, with a target below at 4600-4550; if broken, continue to look downwards. Overall, today’s gold short-term strategy suggests focusing on shorting during rebounds and supporting longs during pullbacks, paying close attention to resistance at 4700-4750 above and support at 4600-4550 below.
Latest trend analysis of crude oil
International crude oil volatility has significantly increased, with WTI crude oil rising to around 113 dollars during the Asian session on Tuesday, reaching a new high for the phase. The main reason remains the tense situation in the Middle East, especially the uncertainty of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global maritime crude oil transport. If restricted, there are concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. Iran has also indicated the possibility of striking energy facilities, intensifying market worries about the stability of Middle Eastern crude oil supply, with geopolitical risks driving up oil prices.
From a daily perspective, influenced by geopolitical situations, crude oil has risen above 110 dollars, with moving averages diverging upwards. The mid-term trend is clearly bullish, with high-level volatility but strong bullish momentum, remaining mainly bullish in the medium term. In the short term, the 1-hour chart shows crude oil fluctuating and stabilizing above 110, crossing the moving averages repeatedly; although volatile, the direction is biased upwards, with MACD operating above the zero line, favoring the bulls. There’s a high probability of high-level volatility and upward movement today. Overall, today's crude oil trading strategy suggests focusing on low buys during pullbacks and high sells during rebounds, with short-term resistance at 120.0-125.0 above and support at 110.0-105.0 below.