Recently, the market sentiment has been changing too quickly, so fast that I am recalibrating my understanding myself. If everyone has been watching the market closely during this time, they should have a very obvious feeling — the previous logic of relying on the Federal Reserve, liquidity, and macro data to explain market trends is starting to become less effective. It’s not that it has failed, but its priority is declining. Now, what truly influences the market rhythm is a more direct, more brutal, and also harder to predict variable — this person named Trump. His mouth opens and closes, and the crypto market sees at least over a hundred million dollars in liquidation!
The macro information in the past few days has been very dense, but there isn't much that can be continuously traded in the market. In the Middle East, the US-Iran conflict has escalated, oil prices have risen and fallen, and gold and silver have fluctuated. Meanwhile, the US and Iran are engaging in tentative ceasefire negotiations, and we cannot determine whether Trump genuinely does not want to fight or is using this as a gimmick to fool Iran into lowering its guard for a thunderous strike. In short, the volatility index of the crypto market has reached an extreme state of madness.
The signals from the funding level are consistent with market sentiment. ETF funds also fluctuate greatly; yesterday, when the ultimatum was issued for Iran to agree to a ceasefire agreement, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow was 471 million dollars, and Ethereum's net inflow was 120 million dollars, both recent peak data. If there are no surprises in the market, with Iran's rejection, today's data will turn negative again.
In terms of regulation, the US SEC has recently begun to release new signals regarding the crypto regulatory framework. In the long term, compliance and clear regulation are positive, but the market's short-term reaction is very restrained. People are more concerned about which details will be defined as securities, which projects will be cleared out, and whether structural risks will be concentrated once regulation is implemented. This state of 'rules undetermined' instead constitutes a short-term uncertainty pressure that is detrimental to funds.
From all the above, we can draw a clear conclusion: what the market lacks now is not information, but consensus. Without consensus, there will be no trend. Why can't consensus be established? Because the variables are too large, and this variable is no longer the traditional economic variable, but we cannot predict when Trump might suddenly utter some outrageous statements.
In the current trading market, policies, speech rhythms, and even emotional changes are starting to be treated as core pricing factors. You will find that any statements related to trade, energy, war, or even crypto regulation will directly impact the risk preferences of funds in a short period, and the rhythm of the market will change accordingly.
Back to the market, Bitcoin's structure in the past few days has clearly demonstrated this state. In the upper range of 70000 to 71000, the pressure is very obvious, with multiple assaults failing to effectively stabilize; each rise is accompanied by a rapid fall, indicating that there are not only trapped positions above but also significant emotional divergence. Meanwhile, although there has not been a crash-like decline below, the rebounds lack sustainability, and the overall structure is a typical weak structure of high-level fluctuations. More importantly, altcoins have not formed a profit-making effect, and funds are clearly contracting, which historically often indicates that the market has not yet entered a genuine main rising phase.
Therefore, from a trend perspective, Uncle San's personal judgment has not changed; it is still cautious. This stage resembles a consolidation period in a downtrend structure rather than the starting point of a new round of market reversal. Many people tend to have illusions during this stage because the market will repeatedly give you hope, but this hope is often fleeting. Once you chase in, it is easy to be harvested in reverse. The hardest part of this kind of market is here: it does not kill you directly but constantly exhausts you.
But Uncle San is not pessimistic. Because although the market is chaotic, it is not out of control. ETFs are still there, institutions are still there, and the policy window is still there; everyone is just waiting for a clearer signal. Once a key variable starts to converge, such as ETFs re-entering a state of large continuous net inflow, or the regulatory framework and details being genuinely implemented, or substantial easing of geopolitical conflicts, then the market has the capacity to stage a decent rebound. However, before that, the rhythm is likely to remain dominated by fluctuations.
In the short to medium term, Uncle San's response is also very simple: do not gamble on direction, do not chase emotions, control positions, and focus more on observation and waiting. When the price can truly stabilize in the key range, when funds start to flow back in at an accelerated pace, then consider increasing risk exposure. At this stage, surviving is more important than how much money is made.
Lastly, let me share my biggest feeling these days. A very important change is happening in the market, gradually shifting from the past liquidity-driven to the current narrative-driven, politically driven, and even personality-driven. The 'Trump market' is just the beginning of this change. In the future market, volatility will be greater, the rhythm will be faster, and the logic will be more complex. But likewise, opportunities will not disappear; they will just become harder to grasp.
You may not adapt, but you must admit that this variable has already existed. As long as Trump is in power, the 'Trump market' is an unavoidable concept for us.
Back to the market:
Big pie: The view that bears dominate at the daily level has remained unchanged recently, and the turning point of the market will only appear after a low point below sixty thousand dollars. In the short term, pay attention to whether the rebound at the four-hour level ends, combined with the impact of market news, the high point at the four-hour level is around 72000 points, and the expansion of the high point caused by positive news has a small probability of touching 76000 points. However, if only considering the liquidity distribution, after the extreme tugging in the short term, Uncle San is more inclined to start a new round of decline below 72000 points. The current distribution after the market has risen is nearing its end, but supply has not shown a proportional increase. The time node focuses on tomorrow night after the US stock market closes; not breaking 72000 points means the end of the short-term four-hour adjustment market, and then the market will return to the low point of the descending wedge and choose the opportunity to break downwards. In terms of operations, wait for opportunities; the most important core of value investing is to avoid unnecessary operations during historical garbage time and maintain sufficient strategic determination during this period.
Ethereum: The overall coordination of the big pie is slightly stronger in the short term, but it is of no use.
The fear and greed index is 35 today.#BTC #特朗普最后期限施压伊朗