Key Takeaways
Wintermute says markets are fully driven by Iran conflict headlines.
Bitcoin rose ~2%, holding above $67,000 support amid extreme fear sentiment (index at 9).
U.S. 10-year yields climbed to 4.36%, with zero probability of near-term Fed cuts.
ETF inflows ($1.32B in March) and institutional buying support prices, but whale selling is rising.
Geopolitical Headlines Dominate Market Direction
Global markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Iran conflict, according to Wintermute.
Last week saw sharp swings across assets:
Ceasefire signals pushed equities higher and oil lower
Renewed escalation rhetoric sent oil above $111 and pressured risk assets
Ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz continues to drive volatility
Markets are increasingly reacting to alternating signals of escalation and de-escalation, creating a headline-driven environment.
Bitcoin Shows Resilience but Lacks Momentum
Bitcoin rose approximately 2% over the week, narrowly holding above the $67,000 support level.
Despite the stability, sentiment remains deeply negative, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 9 (extreme fear)—one of the lowest readings since the conflict began.
This divergence highlights a market where price is stable, but confidence remains weak.
Macro Pressure Builds as Yields Rise
The macro backdrop continues to tighten.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have climbed to 4.36%, up 40 basis points since the conflict began, while swap markets are pricing no chance of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming April meeting.
Upcoming PCE inflation data is expected to be a key catalyst, particularly as rising oil prices risk feeding into broader inflation metrics.
Institutional Demand Supports, But Selling Pressure Emerges
Institutional flows remain a key support pillar:
Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.32 billion inflows in March
Strategy added 44,000 BTC
Morgan Stanley received approval for a spot ETF with a 14bps fee
However, signs of weakening demand are emerging:
Crypto funds saw $414 million outflows late March
Exchange whale ratio surged from 0.34 to 0.79, indicating increased large-holder selling
OTC flows shifted from net buying to neutral or selling
Ethereum Outperforms, Solana Hit by Hack
Ethereum gained 4.2%, supported by its staking yield, which is becoming more attractive in a “higher-for-longer” rate environment.
In contrast, Solana fell below $80 following a $285 million exploit on the Drift protocol, marking one of the largest hacks in its ecosystem.
Key Iran Deadline Could Drive Next Move
Markets are now focused on the upcoming deadline tied to the Strait of Hormuz.
A proposed 45-day ceasefire framework represents the most concrete de-escalation effort so far. However, Wintermute warns that structural damage to energy infrastructure means supply disruptions may persist even in a ceasefire scenario.
If escalation resumes, particularly following threats from Donald Trump, oil prices could spike again, reinforcing inflation pressures and weighing on risk assets.
Stable Prices, Fragile Structure
Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $67,000 reflects strong institutional support, but underlying conditions remain fragile.
With rising yields, geopolitical uncertainty, and increasing whale distribution, the market remains highly sensitive to macro catalysts.
The next directional move will likely depend on:
Iran conflict developments
Oil price trajectory
Fed inflation data
Sustainability of institutional inflows
For now, the crypto market remains range-bound, event-driven, and vulnerable to sudden shifts in sentiment.