逍遥XTony
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The market is likely to test the position just above 10,000 again, with a second bottom.
From a macro perspective, this trade war is different from April's. In April, Trump applied extreme pressure and made unreasonable demands before taking a step back, forcing China to comply; this is Trump's old tactic.
Later, China and the U.S. had three talks, but they didn't really achieve much.
This time, China is taking the initiative to control rare earths globally against the U.S., learning from the Americans to impose long-arm jurisdiction. When Trump saw this, he got furious and wrote another small essay, causing the disaster in the cryptocurrency market on October 11.
If they can go back, I can too. The U.S. is using long-arm jurisdiction against my chips, so I will use long-arm jurisdiction against your rare earths.
This time, China will not compromise. It is not the U.S. that wants to start a trade war; it is China that wants to start a trade war.
Because
1. The trade volume between China and the U.S. has dropped to 8%, making the trade card meaningless; tariffs can be imposed or not.
2. China has developed a 7nm lithography machine, so chip sanctions are ineffective.
Trump has no cards left. If he wants to continue extreme pressure, he must play a bigger card, such as a financial war, threatening to delist Chinese companies, or using the Taiwan card, etc.
Therefore, in terms of macro news, Trump must either play a bigger card to pressure China, such as delisting Chinese companies,
Or make concessions to China and negotiate a good outcome; how is that possible??? Trump is such a proud person.
Increasing tariffs and chip sanctions have already become a pair against three, which is no longer a threat to China.
Trump must play a bigger card now, and worse news may come out at any time.
From a market perspective, both the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency are at high levels, and it is very difficult to rise before news comes out; it is still falling.
Trump's small essay was merely the fuse that led to the disaster on October 11.
The next market movement will likely be a second test, which is highly probable.
From a macro perspective, this trade war is different from April's. In April, Trump applied extreme pressure and made unreasonable demands before taking a step back, forcing China to comply; this is Trump's old tactic.
Later, China and the U.S. had three talks, but they didn't really achieve much.
This time, China is taking the initiative to control rare earths globally against the U.S., learning from the Americans to impose long-arm jurisdiction. When Trump saw this, he got furious and wrote another small essay, causing the disaster in the cryptocurrency market on October 11.
If they can go back, I can too. The U.S. is using long-arm jurisdiction against my chips, so I will use long-arm jurisdiction against your rare earths.
This time, China will not compromise. It is not the U.S. that wants to start a trade war; it is China that wants to start a trade war.
Because
1. The trade volume between China and the U.S. has dropped to 8%, making the trade card meaningless; tariffs can be imposed or not.
2. China has developed a 7nm lithography machine, so chip sanctions are ineffective.
Trump has no cards left. If he wants to continue extreme pressure, he must play a bigger card, such as a financial war, threatening to delist Chinese companies, or using the Taiwan card, etc.
Therefore, in terms of macro news, Trump must either play a bigger card to pressure China, such as delisting Chinese companies,
Or make concessions to China and negotiate a good outcome; how is that possible??? Trump is such a proud person.
Increasing tariffs and chip sanctions have already become a pair against three, which is no longer a threat to China.
Trump must play a bigger card now, and worse news may come out at any time.
From a market perspective, both the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency are at high levels, and it is very difficult to rise before news comes out; it is still falling.
Trump's small essay was merely the fuse that led to the disaster on October 11.
The next market movement will likely be a second test, which is highly probable.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
