Current Situation & Forces at Play

1. Reaction after the record liquidation

After the largest liquidation of all time (~US$ 19 billion) in recent days, the market showed signs of recovery.

MarketWatch

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This indicates that part of the panic may already be absorbed by the “dip buyers”.

2. Expectations of interest rate cuts

Dovish (more “gentle”) statements from monetary authorities in the US have boosted bets on interest rate cuts. This favors risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Barron's

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3. Macro resistance and reversal risks

Some clouds on the horizon: geopolitical tensions (such as trade war between the US and China), strengthening of the dollar, among others, may bring negative pressure.

The Economic Times

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Moreover, volatility remains high — rallies and sharp corrections may alternate in short periods.

4. Technical patterns & support levels

The market is testing critical support and resistance levels. If prices hold important supports, the possibility of a controlled bounce increases; if they break down, there may be a new wave of selling.

🔮 My prediction: neutral-bull short-term trend

I do not see an immediate explosive “bull run”, but I believe the market may be in a consolidation phase with a bullish bias in the coming days/weeks, provided that:

Interest rate cuts continue to be expected and effective,

The market absorbs past liquidations,

There are no strong macro or regulatory shocks.

In other words: the market is still “fragile”, but with chances of gradual recovery.