Market Conditions
• The current price of Bitcoin is approximately $110,510, with a decline of **2.09%** over the past 24 hours. Its market dominance is **58.79%**, indicating its core position.
• Despite favorable macro expectations, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 32, in the 'fear' zone, indicating cautious market sentiment.
• The trading volume over the past 24 hours is approximately $70.3 billion, with market activity remaining high.
Core Drivers
• The Federal Reserve Chairman hinted at the possibility of ending quantitative tightening (QT) in the coming months, which is viewed as a dovish signal, meaning that liquidity will no longer be actively withdrawn from the market, potentially benefiting risk assets.
• Market expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a **97.8%** probability of a 25 basis point cut this month, further enhancing the market's easing expectations.
Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy
• Bitcoin is testing the key support area of $107,000 - $110,000, with short-term resistance above at $113,000 - $114,000.
• Technical indicators show a weakening short-term upward momentum, and traders are watching whether the price can stabilize at the support level. Strategically, consider gradually building positions near the $110,000 support level while setting stop-loss orders below $109,000 to manage risk.
Risks and Market Sentiment
• Market sentiment is divergent, with macro optimism contrasting with the 'fear' index, and short-term selling pressure still exists.
• Historical data shows that Bitcoin significantly rose after the cessation of balance sheet reduction in 2019; however, the current market environment is more complex. Recent high-leverage trading has led to a surge in liquidation amounts, and short-term volatility risks are high, suggesting that investors should cautiously manage their positions.
