Today's Observation $BTC
: Weekly, Daily, 4H continues to consolidate in a wide range. During this three-period cycle, do not fantasize about a long-term bullish space, as the trend does not support the conditions for a rising trend to turn into a bearish trend.
1H broke the support level last night, continuing the bearish control trend. Next, focus on two points: 1) whether it returns above the support level, entering yesterday's consolidation range; 2) after confirming the neckline with a pullback, continue to move downward. These two scenarios will yield different results and different operations. Following the first path, one should consider a wedge adjustment followed by continued oscillation, avoiding short positions and switching to smaller cycles (5m) for long positions. Following the second path, continue to open short positions at the neckline.
The key point, regardless of how these two paths develop, is that it cannot escape a 5m rise, with a range of about 1000-1500 points, unless the 5m remains in consolidation, which indicates stronger bearish strength and weaker bullish strength. The subsequent intraday directional trend will choose after the 5m consolidation. Overall, it remains biased towards weakness.
Knowledge Point: Common post-wedge trends primarily consist of two types: reversal and consolidation. If the wedge appears at the end of a trend and the background supports a reversal, breaking the wedge boundary may initiate a reverse trend. The strength of the reversal is usually significant because the stop-loss of the original trend positions is triggered in concentration. If the background lacks reverse momentum, the wedge may just enter a trading range instead of directly reversing.
The key to trading strategy lies in recognition and confirmation. First, identify the wedge pattern, which should have at least three progressively diminishing trend waves, with the trend lines converging and the volatility range decreasing. Next, wait for the confirmation of the breakout direction, entering when the boundary line is broken at the end of the wedge, placing the stop-loss outside the other boundary of the wedge. It is especially important to combine background judgment—if the wedge appears at the end of a long-term trend and touches higher timeframe resistance or support, the probability of reversal is higher; if the wedge appears midway through a trend, it may just be a continuation pattern, and one should trade in the direction of the trend.
A casual reflection on my personal experience: Trading is something I've done for several years, and I've come to see through it. The more you try to predict the market, the more it slaps you in the face. Really, after all the calculations, what you're ultimately calculating is yourself.
