无衣

It's been a long time since I posted, today I am updating a post

First, about the positions, I currently hold 3 short positions, I will post a picture shortly. At the peak, I had over 20 short positions, and on the 21st, I reduced my holdings near the low point and bought spot and went long.

Now talking about the trend:
Monthly K, correcting during an uptrend
Weekly K, the key point will be around 75,000 to 76,000 in a horizontal consolidation at the top
Daily K, downtrend, currently in a consolidation after a drop and rebound
4H, continuation of a small cycle in a downtrend, currently easy to consolidate
1H, a closing door action, those who are short can reduce positions because there are two possibilities: continuation of the downtrend, or horizontal consolidation
30m, transitioning from consolidation to a downtrend
5m downtrend, rebound strength is very weak (as can be seen from the upper and lower shadows of the candles)

Summary: There will be a possibility of testing the previous low of 80,000, and it is highly likely to consolidate in the range of 80,000 to 90,000. In terms of trend direction, focus on shorting during the day, manage risks well, and do not easily chase shorts or catch bottoms.
$BTC #加密市场观察

$BTC Have you held your position during the decline?

In fact, the market conditions that can truly make money do not require analysis; you just need to trade with the trend. What harms oneself is precisely too many thoughts and insufficient patience.

After reducing positions, continue to hold, do not participate in sideways trading. If the decline continues, increase your position. Time will give us the answers we want. Wait quietly
#加密市场回调

Daily Big Pie $BTC :

4H and above, wide fluctuations

The decline after the double top breakout in 1H continues, and no reversal has been seen yet.

30m downward trend

15-5m, sideways narrow fluctuations, 111700-109000, whether the decline ends and turns into an upward trend, or the key price for the 1H fluctuations is 112100.

Currently continue to hold short positions, but have closed and added to short positions.
#加密市场回调

Bitcoin:
Weekly: The upward trend remains unchanged, but the strength of the bulls is weakening, requiring adjustment.
Daily: Sideways wide fluctuations, zigzag adjustments.
4H: Slightly bullish sideways.
1H: Upward fluctuations.
15m: Upward fluctuations.
5m: Transitioning from upward to sideways.
Summary: The main trend for small cycles (1H and below) is upward, but it will be affected by larger cycles (4H and above), potentially reaching near previous highs; the target level cannot be determined. The larger cycle is still primarily adjusted due to insufficient time.
Intraday trading approach: Mainly bullish, focusing on the 1H direction; specific orders will be reflected in the 5-minute chart. Currently, the 5-minute chart is sideways with no trading opportunities. The trading philosophy is to focus on large trends and trade small accordingly. Key price: Must not return below 113900.
In terms of strength, Ethereum is stronger than Bitcoin.

$BTC
Now many coins are in a sideways trend, besides XRP which is doing relatively well, there aren't many obvious trading opportunities. Do you agree with this viewpoint?

How should we trade now? BTC is in a small sideways cycle, within the range of 111090-111903. If doing small fluctuations, use Bollinger Bands for small trades, trimming the extremes, and after deducting transaction costs, there isn't much profit to be made.

For trend trading, one must wait for breakouts and breakdowns to have trading opportunities.

The only relatively smooth trade is still the short position on TRX, but it's time to reduce positions now. Can't chase #加密市场反弹

$BTC Big Pancake:
Weekly K chart shows a shift from rising to sideways, with a pullback demand at least within 100,000.

Daily K chart: Sideways with wide fluctuations

4H: Sideways fluctuations, leaning bearish

1H: Sideways fluctuations

15m: Sideways fluctuations, leaning weak

5m: Downward trend, mainly short on rebounds, but position is not ideal, need to pay attention to position size and leverage

In summary, the overall trend is still weak with large cycle sideways, there will be repeated fluctuations, but it does not affect the trend trading opportunities in smaller cycles. Currently holding short position #加密市场回调

$BTC
Pancake, 4-hour above horizontal consolidation, 4H downtrend, 1H rebound after decline, 15m and 5m have M-top reversal downward, key neck line position, 108500, if the price is below this, focus on short positions. In the future, it should reach 96500-98000.

In summary, the long-term is horizontal, while the short-term will have good trend waves, but the height of the position determines the size of your risk coefficient. At the entry point, it is essential to clearly understand what a reversal is and what a continuation is, which is crucial for trading guidance.

On a side note, I've been in the hospital for the past two months and have many feelings, such as health being the most important. When you fall ill and enter the hospital, you open a counter-trend position; all treatment methods are about holding the position and adding to it. Some people have small positions and exit with minor losses on a rebound; some exit with half or nearly half of their losses upon discharge; some hold on and face significant losses, needing to add margin or hedge to continue holding; and some hold until they are completely liquidated, ending up with nothing. Regularly pay attention to maintenance and have risk awareness in daily life. Occasional minor issues are not serious, but do not ignore small problems
#鲍威尔发言

$BTC
Sunday, Saturday, upward to sideways volatility; 4H downtrend, rebound during the 1H downtrend,
rebound in the 30m downtrend, sideways adjustment in the 15m downtrend, upward to sideways in the 5m, each cycle is very chaotic and different, so focus on the 1H direction for intraday trading, then look for entry points in smaller cycles.
The current 1H is still in a downtrend, but this downtrend serves as a component for the 4H and daily and weekly sideways internal structure. The lows of the 4H and above sideways volatility will provide support, and one must consider the potential for price reversals or adjustments.
The key price for the ongoing 1H downtrend is 107500. If this price is broken, it will enter a 1H sideways volatility, or end the downtrend; to turn bullish, it must break 109200.
Currently, while handling rebounds, the 5m is sideways, with a sideways range of 106100-107500. Only a breakout upwards or downwards will produce an effective visible direction. For instance, if the 5m breaks downwards, it resonates with the 1H; if it breaks upwards, it ends the bearish outlook and turns into sideways volatility upwards, excluding false breakouts.
In summary, the current momentum remains weak, with a primary bearish outlook. One must always pay attention to the 5m trend direction, as it will guide intraday trading. Be cautious to distinguish between real and fake breakouts, or the consequences could be severe.
#加密市场回调

Today's Observation $BTC
: Weekly, Daily, 4H continues to consolidate in a wide range. During this three-period cycle, do not fantasize about a long-term bullish space, as the trend does not support the conditions for a rising trend to turn into a bearish trend.

1H broke the support level last night, continuing the bearish control trend. Next, focus on two points: 1) whether it returns above the support level, entering yesterday's consolidation range; 2) after confirming the neckline with a pullback, continue to move downward. These two scenarios will yield different results and different operations. Following the first path, one should consider a wedge adjustment followed by continued oscillation, avoiding short positions and switching to smaller cycles (5m) for long positions. Following the second path, continue to open short positions at the neckline.

The key point, regardless of how these two paths develop, is that it cannot escape a 5m rise, with a range of about 1000-1500 points, unless the 5m remains in consolidation, which indicates stronger bearish strength and weaker bullish strength. The subsequent intraday directional trend will choose after the 5m consolidation. Overall, it remains biased towards weakness.

Knowledge Point: Common post-wedge trends primarily consist of two types: reversal and consolidation. If the wedge appears at the end of a trend and the background supports a reversal, breaking the wedge boundary may initiate a reverse trend. The strength of the reversal is usually significant because the stop-loss of the original trend positions is triggered in concentration. If the background lacks reverse momentum, the wedge may just enter a trading range instead of directly reversing.
The key to trading strategy lies in recognition and confirmation. First, identify the wedge pattern, which should have at least three progressively diminishing trend waves, with the trend lines converging and the volatility range decreasing. Next, wait for the confirmation of the breakout direction, entering when the boundary line is broken at the end of the wedge, placing the stop-loss outside the other boundary of the wedge. It is especially important to combine background judgment—if the wedge appears at the end of a long-term trend and touches higher timeframe resistance or support, the probability of reversal is higher; if the wedge appears midway through a trend, it may just be a continuation pattern, and one should trade in the direction of the trend.
A casual reflection on my personal experience: Trading is something I've done for several years, and I've come to see through it. The more you try to predict the market, the more it slaps you in the face. Really, after all the calculations, what you're ultimately calculating is yourself.
#美国加征关税

Today's Observation $BTC
Large Pancake: 4H and above are in a wide range of sideways fluctuations, providing adjustment time and indicators, and emotional corrections for the weekly and monthly charts. Adjustments are always of two types: sideways fluctuations and active moves up or down. Wide sideways adjustments: reduce 2-3 cycles to participate in small trends. Narrow sideways convergence adjustments, hold cash. Active moves up or down can only be engaged in short-term trades; never treat adjustments as trends, as this may lead to holding positions and losing real trading opportunities.

Of course, in the 1H timeframe, a decline turns into sideways fluctuations at 111000-115720, with no trading opportunities in 1H. At this position, there is strong support, and only when 111000 is effectively broken can a strong breakout occur, triggering a trend resonance downwards; otherwise, it should be treated as sideways.
Summary: The movements are very chaotic and not smooth enough; it's better to watch more and do less, but overall strength is weak, focusing on short positions, but the current time and position are not favorable. Right now, it feels like a beautiful woman dancing in front of you without clothes, constantly teasing and tempting you to jump in; you must resist and hold on. Once the timing and direction are wrong, it is the beginning of destruction.
Technical trading details: For those who play patterns, engage when there is a sharp breakout or after a failed breakout, or in the best segment after the pattern is complete. Enter when strength exhaustion occurs in lower cycles, with minimal stop loss, but stability is insufficient.
For those who play indicators: such as moving averages being bullish/bearish deadlocked, crossing above/below the previous high/low, MACD zero crossing golden cross or death cross, Bollinger Bands opening up/down, note that upward movements must have volume, while downward movements do not require it. When these types of resonances occur, stability can reach over 67%; just be aware of false breakouts. Once a breakout failure occurs, immediately close the existing positions and observe whether to reverse trade, which has higher requirements for position heights. #美国加征关税

$BTC

Bitcoin, weekly K, ascending trend turns to sideways, daily K sideways wide fluctuations, 4H rebounds from oversold, 1H upward rebound in a downtrend, 30m ascending turns sideways. From above, trading opportunities are visible in 4H and above, with no trading opportunities in 1H and below. The rebound strength of Bitcoin is weaker than that of Ethereum and BNB. When choosing trades, going long should select assets with upward strength stronger than Bitcoin, while shorting should prioritize assets with weaker strength than Bitcoin. Intraday trading should primarily focus on sideways fluctuation operations, within the range of 115920-113596, where these positions also serve as temporary support and resistance. If false breakouts or false breakdowns occur, these values will change. Only effective breakouts and breakdowns will indicate the direction for entry. Of course, essentially, making breakouts and breakdowns is about trend trading, but this also raises several issues: 1. Poor entry position, 2. Excessive stop loss, 3. Psychological pressure from losses due to pullbacks after breakouts, 4. How to handle failed breakouts or breakdowns, 5. How to deal with continued sideways movement after breakouts or breakdowns, 6. How to exit. The above issues are situations we must experience and face, and the ability to profit or incur losses, including the amount of profit or loss, stems from our responses.
#加密市场反弹

Midday Chat $BTC

Last night, I believe many people made money, and many others regretted missing the opportunity to short and buy spot at a low point. Of course, a considerable number of people were also wiped out; reality is that cruel. The market does not give us the opportunity to regret and start over; knowing in advance is priceless.

Recently, a teacher said something very good that is suitable for trading: widely spread is: when the direction is wrong, the more knowledge one has, the more reactionary it becomes; there is also a saying online that the original text is: when the route is wrong, the more knowledge one has, the more reactionary it becomes; but I have searched through the Selected Works of Mao and literature, and found nothing. However, in 1970, in a discussion on genius theory, it was mentioned: I mainly talk about route issues; if the route is correct, everything follows; if the route is wrong, it will collapse. When the route is right, there will be fewer people; if there are no guns, there will be guns, and there will also be power; when the route is wrong, no matter how many people or guns there are, it is useless.

I share these few sentences not to discuss which is the original wording, but to say that in our trading, when judging: subjective and objective; relative and absolute; sideways to trend; trend to sideways; major trends and minor trends; how minor trends drive major trends and convert them. The causes are multi-dimensional and multi-factorial.

When we trade ourselves, the direction must be clear; no direction means no trading. Once there is a direction, entry points will arise, followed by stop losses. If we hit a stop loss, it indicates that our direction or entry point is wrong. But a mistake is a mistake. Many liquidations and holding positions are just due to a wrong direction, attempting to validate this so-called wrong direction using much of the knowledge learned and heard, which ultimately determines the final outcome.

Back to the trend, there is no direction in 1H and below, mainly sideways fluctuations. It's best to pause, with a range between 1500-2000 points. In smaller cycles and segments, light positions can be played with, but stop losses must be well managed.

#加密市场回调

$BTC Operation at dawn

This position should reduce or exit the short position, do not go long for now, do not catch the bottom, although there will be spikes with fluctuations of several thousand points, the risk is too high, and it is difficult to set a stop loss. It is better to give up and definitely do not go against the bearish trend.

In previous posts, several key points were mentioned: stage top, strength, and shorting. Here it verifies that the trend has turned from long to short, with a sideways movement during the decline, which then develops into a trend. However, this trend is only a small cycle trend, thus producing daily K and weekly K adjustments, with the weekly K still in an upward trend, unchanged. At this position, a rebound correction is needed.

Next steps: do less and observe more, or do nothing. I have currently closed my positions and am in a flat state. #加密市场回调

$BTC Chat

First, let's discuss the direction:

A sideways adjustment in an upward trend over a large cycle, correcting market sentiment and indicators.

In the smaller cycles of 1H and below, particularly in 5-15 minutes, there will be small trends.

Overall, the bullish momentum is relatively weak. Trading direction: Maintain the opinion from the past few days, primarily focusing on short positions. Of course, there will be traders who go long, holding their positions or averaging down. Trading is never about being right or wrong; it's about profit and loss. Patience is extremely important, using countless small losses to exchange for various profits, always keeping risk within your capability and always placing risk where you can see it.

Current positions: Short positions, primarily focused on swings.
#加密市场回调

$BTC Today's casual talk

Currently, do not consider holding long contracts for the long term, except for holding positions, let go of illusions, and be realistic.

Focus on contracts with 1H and below, there will be good trading opportunities, it requires time; currently, the market is in a sideways trend. I hold a short position in Bitcoin/XRP, and of course, one cannot chase shorts at this moment.

A couple of days ago, I mentioned the issue of false breakouts; it could be a historic peak in a large cycle, where risks and opportunities coexist. Yesterday's trading opportunity also came from breaking down and breaking out of the small cycle's sideways trend, only to return to the sideways trend later, resulting in a false breakout, which created two trading opportunities.

To summarize:
① In a sideways trend, participate in the trend of a small cycle from a large cycle's sideways trend.
② When the large cycle is sideways, and the small cycle is also sideways, one must stay out of the market.
③ Two trading opportunities arise from the situation in point ②: A) The pullback to the neckline after a breakdown from the sideways trend and the retest of the neckline after a breakout. B) If the breakdown and breakout fail, then reverse trade. This has a small stop loss and low risk; trade plans should follow the trend.

How to distinguish between true and false breakouts? The simplest and most effective way is to return to the range of high and low points on the left side. Of course, combining this with some divergence from the large cycle and critical time node data will provide stronger stability, and this must be flexible.
From the above content, it can be concluded that the trading opportunities generated by the current sideways trend of Bitcoin at different cycles are evident. Never predict, and do not have expectations; many aspects of love or life are the same. Where there is prediction, there is psychological suggestion; where there are expectations, there will be disappointment.
#BTC再创新高 #美联储降息预期升温

Today's observation $BTC
The key points and breakthrough failures mentioned earlier appeared yesterday, with the long-term (weekly K) upward trend turning into a sideways wide oscillation, and a divergence indicating a weakening of momentum. The short-term (5-15M) is sideways, with short-term resistance at 122260 and support at 120500, a range of 1500 points of fluctuation. The long-term is sideways, and there may be a trend in the short-term, but if the short-term also goes sideways, trading opportunities will be lost. Maintain a flat position; only when there is a breakthrough or breakdown from the oscillation range will there be trading opportunities, but be cautious of false breakouts and false breakdowns. If they occur, one should trade in the opposite direction or exit manually.

In the case of ETH, the long-term is sideways, and a reversal in the short-term triggered a 300-point drop, with a very obvious false breakout in 15 minutes, catching the bulls off guard. One must remain vigilant and maintain risk awareness.

To conclude, I currently hold short positions in Bitcoin and XRP. Personally, I am bearish right now, only targeting short positions in the 1H and below short-term cycles, as the current long-term has not yet confirmed a turning point into a bearish control. It should be sideways around 119000.
#BTC再创新高

$BTC Today's View

Today’s new high is something to celebrate. The key direction is outlined in the previous post, still focusing on the upward trend. Today, the breakthrough of the previous high of 124500 will serve as an important criterion for measuring bullish and bearish strength moving forward.

There are three possible scenarios:
1. If it breaks through the 4H and daily K-line consolidation, maintaining the main upward wave, then it will continue the monthly K and weekly K trend. In this case, do not easily short, and continue to hold long positions.

2. If the breakout fails and falls back below 124500, it will be considered a false breakout. Those who chased the breakout long must exit to avoid being trapped at high positions.

3. From the second scenario, there are two extensions to consider: ① Small cycle high consolidation, then stay in cash; ② If it becomes a historical peak, then it can be shorted, with a stop-loss at the new high position.
121400 will become the turning point for bulls and bears.

$ETH weaker than BTC, whether it will catch up to the previous high remains to be observed. Currently, it is still healthy, maintaining a long position as the primary strategy; trend is key, predict less, follow more.
$ETH

Some friends and followers have asked me why I haven't updated for a long time. Let me explain:
First, the market is just there. When you only focus on trends, ignore news, forget prices, and neglect indicators, your trading will be incredibly simple. Just knowing the levels and rhythm is enough. The more posts you make, the more you can lose your direction.
Second, my father was hospitalized due to a brain hemorrhage. He is now receiving rehabilitation treatment, and I have been accompanying him. I do not have the time or mindset to monitor the market.

In my spare time, let's talk about the market trend for $BTC :
Monthly K: Upward trend. Weekly K: Upward trend.
Daily K: Transitioning from upward to sideways fluctuations, with the target in a top formation.
4H: Also showing wide fluctuations similar to the daily chart, with different time spans, the amplitude compared to the daily line will also differ, leading to seeing upward and downward trends. However, when you observe it, the position is definitely not good, the stop-loss is too large, and when combined with some indicators, it deteriorates, making you afraid to enter. The reason is the wrong level❌. A small understanding: In a large cycle of sideways movement, especially in a wide range of fluctuations, the smaller cycles will inevitably show trends. So focus on trading trends below the sideways fluctuation cycle, which will be very comfortable.
1H and 30m: After breaking through 109700, it has been in a strong upward trend until now. Thus, the upward trend level has appeared, with the maximum level being 1H. The best entry points will be at the breakouts of 5m and 15m, or when a retracement occurs to the golden ratio levels of 50-61.8-78.6, which will present resonance points that will be entry opportunities. In this process, multiple instances of bearish divergence will be seen. So why isn’t it falling? Why does it keep going up? The reason is that the larger cycles are sideways on the weekly and daily charts, and the nearby previous high points of the larger cycles will be the final destination.
Conclusion: For bullish resonance, do not fear heights; for strong bullish momentum, do not easily say to short. At this position, it is advisable to relative reduce long positions or when a sharp rise appears, if it reaches new highs and returns to the previous high point, long positions must exit, then observe. Currently, I am in a flat position.
#BTC重返12万

$BTC Pre-sleep Perspective

Currently, the short-term cycle indicates a short position; those with short positions should maintain them, but must definitely set stop-losses to manage risk. If there are no short positions, one should wait for a rebound before entering. Key point: if it does not return above 108500, hold firmly. Never chase a short position, it will lead to losses.

Never ignore risks; destruction begins with ignorance.
#美国加征关税

$BTC
Sideways fluctuations, it's advisable to stay in cash, key prices remain unchanged, see the previous post. Be cautious of false breakouts
#美国加征关税