April 15 Gold and Crude Oil Evening Market Trend Analysis and Latest Exclusive Suggestions for European and American Operations
Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis:
Spot gold surged to its highest point in nearly four weeks on Wednesday morning before beginning to fluctuate, hovering below $4850, and the pace of increase has temporarily slowed. Although the short-term rise has stalled, the overall trend is still bullish, mainly due to the weakening dollar and changes in market interest rate expectations, which have provided support for gold. The key reason for this wave of gold rise is the pressure on the dollar. Recently, the market feels that the US-Iran relationship may ease, with the US sending out many positive signals. Vice President Pence stated that he would push for a more comprehensive agreement to help Iran reintegrate into the global economy; UN Secretary-General Guterres also mentioned that the US and Iran are likely to restart negotiations. These messages have improved market risk sentiment, causing the dollar to fall to its lowest point since early March, naturally providing support for gold.
From the market perspective, the daily level gold price has a strong upward trend, having risen for two consecutive days and filling the previous gap, firmly standing above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, which are all in a bullish formation, steadily supporting the gold price. The MACD is showing a bullish crossover above the zero line, with increasingly longer red energy bars indicating steady bullish momentum; the KDJ continues to rise in the mid-high range, though there is some minor adjustment needed without any reversal signals. On the 4-hour chart, the gold price is following a standard upward channel, with higher lows and higher highs, and every time it dips to the lower Bollinger Band, buying interest steps in, characteristic of a strong bullish trend. Moving averages are consistently bullish and diverging, with the 5, 10, and 20 moving averages moving upward in sync, and the middle Bollinger Band also rising, firmly supporting the gold price. The MACD is showing a bullish crossover above the zero line, and the energy bars are increasing steadily, indicating a stable upward trend with further upside potential.
On the 1-hour chart for gold, the price has been strongly oscillating upward, replacing large drops with sideways movement, and buying interest is very active. Short-term moving averages are diverging upward, providing direct support for the gold price; the MACD is running with a bullish crossover, and red energy bars are expanding gently, indicating short-term bullish strength is still present; the KDJ is slightly slowing at high levels, suggesting a minor adjustment is needed, but this won't change the overall upward trend. The adjustment won't be large, and dips will be good entry points for short-term trades. Overall, today's strategy for gold, as suggested by Lao Yu, is to focus primarily on buying on dips, with shorting during rebounds as a secondary strategy. Short-term resistance to watch is at 4870-4920, while support is at 4770-4720.
Latest analysis on crude oil market trends:
On Wednesday morning during the European session, U.S. crude oil dropped over 6% on Tuesday, fluctuating around $90.75 per barrel, and today may test the $90 per barrel mark. The drop on Tuesday was significant, with Brent crude down 4.6% closing at $94.79 per barrel and U.S. crude down 7.87% closing at $91.20 per barrel, mainly due to market expectations of Iran and the U.S. and Israel resuming negotiations to end the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply concerns. This week, the international crude oil market has clearly pulled back, primarily because news of easing tensions in the Middle East has increased. The premium that rose due to geopolitical conflicts is gradually being digested, and investors are less worried about supply disruptions. After a meeting between UN Secretary-General Guterres and Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar, the prospects of resuming negotiations have been seen by the market as a significant signal of easing tensions.
From the daily candlestick chart, oil prices have been repeatedly climbing thanks to moving averages, and the mid-term direction is still upward. The MACD is showing a bearish crossover above the zero line, indicating a decline, with bullish momentum gradually weakening, but the mid-term outlook remains bullish. In the short term (1 hour), crude oil has been oscillating downward to new lows, with moving averages all in a bearish formation, clearly indicating a downward direction. The MACD is trending downward below the zero line, and bearish pressure is strong. In the early session, oil prices dropped to a new low of 87, still in a downtrend. It is expected that crude oil will continue to decline today, hitting new lows. Overall, today's strategy for crude oil, according to Lao Yu, is to focus primarily on shorting during rebounds, with buying on dips as a secondary strategy. Short-term resistance is projected at 98.0-103.0, while support is seen at 85.0-80.0.#黄金 $XAU