Latest trend analysis of gold prices:
On Thursday morning, spot gold rose slightly, with the current price around $4822 per ounce, an increase of about 0.6%. The US dollar has continued to weaken, providing ongoing support for gold prices. After surging to a one-month high of $4871.28 on Wednesday, gold quickly fell back, finally closing around $4790, a nearly 1% drop in one day; US futures gold also fell by 0.5%, closing at $4823.60. In just one day, gold shifted from a safe-haven favorite to a target for profit-taking, primarily because Trump stated that 'the Iran war is nearing its end,' triggering a chain reaction in the market.
Gold experienced back-and-forth fluctuations yesterday, which aligns with our predictions. With so much news and rapid changes daily, no final decisions have been made, so gold can only continue to oscillate. The key level today is 4870. On the 4-hour chart, gold remains within a wide range; it bounced back several times from around 4780 yesterday, indicating solid support at that level. If gold breaks below 4780, it may continue to decline; the short-term direction will be chosen between 4780-4870. In the early session, if it faces resistance near 4870, consider taking a short position, with continued support seen at 4780. Overall, today’s short-term trading strategy suggested by Lao Yu focuses on buying the dips, with some shorting on rebounds. Key resistance levels to watch above are 4870-4920, while support levels below are 4780-4730.
Latest oil market trend analysis:
International oil prices dropped early Thursday, now hovering around $87.93 per barrel, mainly due to market expectations of easing tensions between the US and Iran. Reports suggest both sides are considering extending the current ceasefire for another two weeks, buying time to negotiate a long-term agreement; meanwhile, mediators are pushing for compromises on key issues like navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear matters. The market's anxiety over potential oil supply issues has notably cooled. The decline in oil prices is attributed to the retreat of the risk premium that had previously surged due to geopolitical tensions, prompting long positions to take profits.
On the daily chart for oil, prices have breached the moving averages, indicating a shift in the medium-term trend; the movement is skewed downward, with the MACD indicator descending from a high position, suggesting strengthening bearish momentum and a high probability of a medium-term correction from elevated levels. In the short term (1-hour), oil is consolidating at lower levels, not making new lows, but overall remains bearish, constrained by moving averages, with a downward trend. Today, oil is expected to oscillate downwards, testing previous lows around 87. Overall, today's trading strategy suggested by Lao Yu focuses primarily on shorting the rebound, with some long positions on pullbacks. Key resistance levels to watch above are 98.0-103.0, while support levels below are 85.0-80.0.