Bitcoin is gradually reclaiming some key levels.

For the past three days, BTC has managed to close above the adjusted realized price (excluding 7y+), now sitting at $72,300.

In other words, this represents the average cost basis of the supply currently considered in circulation.

We’ve now reached the average break-even level for a large portion of investors.

Ideally, I’d like to see a weekly close above this level for stronger confirmation, although a rejection here remains possible.

A truly bullish signal would be for Bitcoin to start building a standard deviation above this average cost basis, pushing more investors into profit and encouraging them to hold due to increased conviction.

Looking at previous bear markets, price reactions around this level are quite clear.

When BTC dropped below it, it marked the start of a sustained bear market. Conversely, when it reclaimed it, it signaled the beginning of a bullish trend, with this cost basis acting as support during pullbacks (except during the COVID crash).

The coming days will be critical in confirming a shift back to a more positive trend.

Written by Darkfost