This week, gold first fell and then rose, overall oscillating at a high level. It dropped to 4640 at the beginning of the week and then began to rebound, reaching a high of around 4890. Most of this week, it fluctuated slightly in the range of 4750-4870, closing at 4833 dollars on Friday, with an increase of 0.77% for the week. Next week, there are important data and events such as the preliminary value of the U.S. April manufacturing PMI and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, along with the unstable situation in the Middle East, which may likely lead to significant fluctuations in gold prices. The Middle East situation over the weekend is key to influencing market trends. Israel and Lebanon have reached a 10-day temporary ceasefire, and the U.S. and Iran are also preparing to renegotiate in Pakistan, leading to a slight cooling of market risk aversion. However, caution is warranted as negotiations may collapse and lead to escalating conflicts. If tensions rise, safe-haven funds will flood in, and gold prices may open high and rise sharply; if the situation continues to ease, risk aversion may decrease, and gold prices will face the risk of a pullback. Geopolitical conflicts will directly affect Monday's opening, and everyone should be prepared for potential price gaps.

From the charts, on the weekly timeframe, gold is still showing a bullish consolidation trend. It has been closing bullish candles for several weeks in a row, with moving averages aligned upward. The gold price is comfortably above the 5-week and 20-week moving averages, which are providing solid support. The MACD indicator is operating above the zero line, with red bars slightly shrinking, indicating that the bulls are still in the game. Both the lows and highs are gradually rising, with strong support around 4600 and resistance mainly seen in the 4950-5000 range. On the daily timeframe, the gold price has repeatedly tested the key support level of 4765-4785 without breaking it, showcasing effective support. The moving averages are slowly forming a bullish arrangement, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages crossing upward. The MACD is above the zero line, and the red bars are slightly increasing in volume, suggesting that bullish momentum is building.

On the 4-hour chart, after a peak, gold has pulled back. The Bollinger Bands are constricting, and the price is oscillating between 4800-4900. The moving averages are trending upward, and the MACD is fluctuating above the zero line, with alternating red and green bars indicating that neither bulls nor bears are strong. The RSI is hovering around 50, showing intense competition between bulls and bears, with key support at 4785 and pressure at 4900. A breakout in either direction will clarify the short-term trend. In the short-term 1-hour timeframe, gold is in a persistent downtrend, with the Bollinger Bands opening downwards, and the price moving along the lower band. The moving averages are aligned downward, and the price is being pressured by short-term moving averages, with rebounds lacking strength and quickly retreating. After forming a death cross, the MACD continues to decline, with green bars getting longer, indicating that the bearish momentum is being released. The KDJ indicator is diverging downward, suggesting further downside potential, and the RSI is below 50, indicating that bears dominate. The short-term key support is at 4785; if broken, it will continue to probe lower. The downtrend is clear, and no stabilization signals have been seen yet. Overall, for next week, I suggest focusing on shorting on rebounds and considering buying on dips, with short-term resistance around 4865-4890 and support around 4800-4765.

This week, global energy and metal markets have been highly volatile, with the rapid de-escalation of geopolitical conflicts being the main factor affecting the market. Crude oil prices have plummeted, erasing gains made over the past few weeks due to safe-haven buying. Brent crude oil dropped 2.57% this week, with a volatility range of up to 18.47%; U.S. crude oil fell 12.16%, with an even higher volatility of 27.88%. This shows that the battle between bulls and bears is fierce under the influence of news. In contrast, gold, as a safe-haven asset, has performed more steadily, rising 1.79% this week with a volatility of only 5.26%, relatively mild. The market is no longer worried about supply disruptions but is starting to price in expectations of geopolitical calm and a return to normal supply.

From the daily chart, oil prices have broken below the moving average system, indicating a change in the mid-term trend. The rhythm of the trend shows a continuous decline, with the overall trend pointing downward. The MACD indicator is opening downward from a high position above the zero line, with bearish momentum gradually strengthening. It is expected that oil prices will adjust downwards from the high. In the short-term 1-hour trend, oil prices are oscillating at a low level, initially rising slightly before falling back, maintaining a choppy rhythm, with the trend still downwards. Oil prices repeatedly cross the moving averages, and in the short term, they are in a sideways oscillation state, with expectations for the day being a consolidation pattern. Overall, for next week, I suggest focusing on buying on dips and considering shorting on rebounds, with short-term resistance around 87.0-90.0 and support around 82.0-80.0.#黄金 $XAU