The current market is at a delicate balance point. Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a long 'high-level consolidation period' after reaching an all-time high, showing a converging triangle in terms of technical patterns, with market sentiment rapidly switching between greed and fear. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH), backed by the narrative of spot ETFs, is brewing a potential 'awakening' in its ETH/BTC exchange rate. This article will deeply analyze the current technical aspects of BTC and ETH and explore the next phase of the market's main line in conjunction with macro liquidity expectations. 📈📉
1. Bitcoin (BTC): The 'eye of the storm' of high-level consolidation
Bitcoin, as the 'stabilizing force' in the market, influences the nerves of the entire cryptocurrency world.
Technical Pattern Analysis: From the daily chart, BTC has not achieved smooth 'price discovery' after breaking through the previous high (about $69,000) and encountered strong resistance near $73,000, falling back to a wide fluctuation range of $60,000 to $70,000. Currently, the price is operating within a large 'symmetrical converging triangle' pattern. This is a typical 'continuation pattern', indicating that after the consolidation ends, it is highly likely to continue the previous trend (i.e., upward).
Key Levels: The upper resistance level is currently around $68,500, and the lower support level is near $61,000. Trading volume (VOL) gradually shrinks during the convergence process, which is a healthy characteristic of the consolidation period.On-chain Data Insights: Glassnode data shows that long-term holders (LTH) have not shown large-scale selling in this range, and the MVRV-Z score has dropped from the 'extreme greed' area, indicating that market bubbles have been released to some extent. However, the SOPR (Realized Profit/Loss Ratio) of short-term holders (STH) fluctuates around 1, indicating that the profit expectations of new capital entering the market are decreasing, and the market needs new catalysts.
Macroeconomic Narrative: The halving effect has already been priced in, while the Federal Reserve's 'hawkish' stance (i.e., no hope for interest rate cuts in the short term) acts like the sword of Damocles, suppressing market liquidity expectations. Capital inflow into BTC spot ETFs has also slowed down. BTC currently resembles a 'macro asset', with its volatility being 'tamed' by institutional arbitrage.
2. Ethereum (ETH): 'Value Reassessment' under the ETF Narrative
Compared with BTC's 'silence', ETH carries more 'expectations' from the market.
ETH/BTC exchange rate: This is a key indicator to determine whether ETH is 'awakening'. This exchange rate has been in a descending channel for the past few months but found solid historical support near 0.048. With the SEC's 180-degree turn in attitude towards the ETH spot ETF, this exchange rate has strongly broken through the long-term downward trend line. This is an extremely important technical signal, indicating that capital may be rotating from BTC to ETH.
Technical Pattern Analysis: The price pattern of ETH/USD is stronger than that of BTC. It has completed the construction of a 'Cup and Handle' pattern and has broken through the resistance level of the 'handle' under the stimulus of ETF positivity. The current pullback is confirming the validity of the support.
Core Logic: The market is reassessing the value of ETH. It is no longer just a 'DApp platform', but possesses 'commodity' attributes (not classified as securities by the SEC) + 'productive assets' (Staking income) + 'deflation' (EIP-1559 burn) in a threefold narrative.
3. Market Simulation: Path Selection under Dual Games
Scenario 1 (High Probability): ETH leads, BTC follows. The market focus shifts to the official listing of the ETH spot ETF and capital inflow. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to strengthen, with ETH breaking through its historical high first. The ETH ecosystem (L2, DeFi, Restaking) is fully activated, ushering in the 'Summer of Ethereum'. BTC, driven by ETH, slowly breaks through the upper boundary of the converging triangle. 🚀
Scenario 2 (Low Probability): Macro suppression, synchronous adjustment. If U.S. macro data (such as CPI) exceeds expectations again and the Federal Reserve releases a stronger hawkish signal, leading to global liquidity tightening, risk assets (including U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies) will come under pressure together. At that time, BTC's converging triangle will break downward, and ETH's ETF positivity will also be 'Sell the news', entering a deeper adjustment period. 📉
Summary:
The market is at a critical window for narrative transformation. In the short term, BTC's technical pattern (converging triangle) and macro liquidity (Federal Reserve) are the core factors determining the 'ceiling'; while ETH's ETF narrative is the core factor determining the 'engine'. Investors should closely monitor the movements of the ETH/BTC exchange rate, as it will be the most important signal to judge whether this round of market can enter the 'second phase'. 🧐