$BTC Currently
1. Current Trends and Key Positions
Yesterday, the market first found support at the 4-hour EMA20 (113,400), rebounding to the 116,000 level before encountering resistance and falling back. The price then retraced to the daily EMA20 (around 112,200) where it stabilized, and is currently attempting to re-establish itself above the 1-hour EMA20 (113,000).
2. Short-term Core Strategy and Risk Warning
Strategy Direction: From now until 2 AM on the 30th, when the Federal Reserve announces its rate cut decision and Powell speaks at 2:30 AM, the short-term approach remains predominantly bullish. Key Resistance: It is crucial to pay attention to the 116,000 level —— the market has previously attempted to break this level twice, both times failing, with the second attempt being weaker than the first. If the third attempt also fails to hold above 116,000, the price will likely pull back to around 113,000 to seek support.
3. Federal Reserve Event: The Core Variable is “Whether to Stop QT”
Rate Cut Expectations: Currently, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at dawn, which has already been partially reflected in the market's uplift. Key Variable: The core uncertainty of this event lies in whether Powell will announce the “stop of balance sheet reduction (QT)” during his speech. If QT is clearly stopped, market sentiment will be significantly boosted, and the upward momentum of Bitcoin and U.S. stocks will be stronger; if not mentioned or QT is not stopped, the market may remain volatile.
4. Subsequent Alternative Positive Factors: “Phased Easing Expectations” from the South Korea APEC Meeting
If the Federal Reserve's rate cut, this “maximum momentum opportunity”, still cannot push the price above 116,000, attention should be turned to the upcoming South Korea APEC meeting. From the current situation, it is likely that China and the U.S. have reached a phased agreement —— even if the agreement may ultimately be difficult to implement, as long as the market forms expectations of “phased easing”, it will still have a positive feedback effect on risk assets including Bitcoin.
