People who send such messages are either bad or foolish

Tonight, the market is expected to make a big move. There was news before the market opened that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (Old Powell) might not only refrain from lowering interest rates after seeing the inflation data, but may even raise them. As a result, Trump immediately posted that he would never allow the Fed to raise interest rates. This caused pre-market trading to go haywire, as everyone is waiting for the "decisive battle" at 2:30 AM—it's all about whose voice the global market will ultimately heed in this game of interest rate increases and decreases, and who really has the final say.

The key focus tonight is the Fed's interest rate decision. Originally, everyone thought that a "rate cut" was a done deal, and tonight they want to gamble on the direction: will it rise first and then fall, or fall first and then rise?

But to be honest, it's particularly difficult to operate tonight. If we ignore the rate cut issue and just look at the daily closing situation, combined with the fact that it is still below the zero line, I would certainly prefer to short. However, the rate cut issue is not settled—whether to cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points, and how many times to cut later, these can directly determine the market's direction.

Personally, I still prefer to follow the market direction and am inclined to short. Of course, I could be wrong; the market is inherently about speculation. Even if the short position makes a profit, when it's time to cover, I still have to do it; this is something that has never changed for me.

Additionally, a practical piece of information: the market is almost universally convinced that the Fed will cut rates. According to CME data, the probability of a 25 basis point cut tonight is approaching 98%, mainly because the U.S. inflation and employment data for September are not very good, paving the way for a rate cut. However, there is no consensus within the Fed on how to cut rates going forward (how fast, how many times), and if Powell speaks in a "dovish" manner (supporting continued rate cuts) at the press conference in the early morning, it may boost the market; if he leans towards a "hawkish" stance (hinting at fewer cuts or no cuts), the volatility will be even greater. #美联储降息预期 #加密市场回调 #中美贸易谈判