Bitcoin (#BTC ) has recently shown impressive performance, with various signals indicating that this digital asset is accumulating strength and may be on the verge of a new upward trend. However, market sentiment remains complex, with both bullish momentum and reasons for investors to remain cautious.
1. Three Positive Factors Driving Bitcoin's Rise 🌍
1️⃣ Global Economic Uncertainty Eases
According to the latest report from Alphractal, the global economic policy uncertainty index is declining. Venture capital is returning to the market, which typically means that risk assets like Bitcoin are expected to receive support.
2️⃣ Korean investor interest is warming up
Curvo data shows that the Korean premium index has risen, indicating that purchasing activity in the Korean market is recovering. This group was once a significant force driving Bitcoin prices and is now active again, injecting new momentum into the market.
3️⃣ Federal Reserve rate cut expectations
Investors generally expect the Federal Reserve to possibly lower interest rates by 25 basis points, and this optimistic sentiment is expected to provide liquidity support for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
2. Why are some investors still cautious? 🤔
Despite the many positive factors, there are still many people in the market standing still, mainly for two reasons:
Institutional buying has slowed: Glassnode data shows that the daily purchase volume by institutions has decreased from over 2,500 Bitcoin to less than 1,000. This means that the core force driving Bitcoin's further rise has weakened.
Federal Reserve interest rates still have uncertainties: While the market expects a rate cut, it is still unclear whether the stance will be dovish or hawkish, causing investors to remain cautious.
3. Technical indicators suggest potential upward movement 📊
Short-term holders (STH) data shows that Bitcoin is in an expansion phase.
When STH-SOPR aligns with the Bollinger Bands, it means that the price has broken through the middle track and is on an upward trend. Historically, this usually indicates that Bitcoin may experience a significant increase in the short term, with a target price of around $10,200.
However, this wave of increase may take some time to fully materialize, as major funds in the market are still observing.
4. Comparison between Bitcoin and S&P 500 🔍
Data shows that Bitcoin's return rate is about 69.5%, while the S&P 500 index has only risen by 10.1% during the same period.
This indicates that if the current macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment remain stable, Bitcoin is expected to continue outperforming traditional stock markets, attracting more risk capital inflows.
5. Short-term Strategy Suggestions 📝
Hold patiently: Bitcoin is currently building momentum, and there is no need to chase high prices in the short term.
Pay attention to Bitcoin support levels: If the price breaks below key support, short-term risks increase.
Keep an eye on Federal Reserve dynamics: The FOMC meeting could become a key trigger for short-term market movements.
Korean market trends: Inflows of overseas capital are an important signal driving price increases.
To summarize: Bitcoin is bullish in the short term, with long-term potential still intact, but institutional caution and Federal Reserve decisions remain key variables.
📌 Reminder: The above content is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Entering the market requires caution.#美联储降息预期