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Overall Market
Data source: TradingView
On October 10, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports after U.S. markets closed, triggering a massive liquidation event in the cryptocurrency market with a record $19 billion in notional value wiped out. Sentiment turned sharply bearish amid the ensuing crash. Although prices rebounded quickly, Bitcoin ($BTC) retested its lower bound near $103,500 and found support as strong buying interest emerged.
So far, BTC has fluctuated within a broad range of approximately $103,500 to $116,000. U.S.-China trade tensions have since eased with positive developments from both sides. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that trade negotiations between the two nations are progressing well, with some agreements already reached. President Trump met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, on October 30, 2025. Markets remain optimistic about this summit, anticipating it could lead to further de-escalation in the trade war between the world's two largest economies by GDP.
Gold prices declined from an all-time high of $4,379 as trade tensions subsided, shifting market euphoria away from the metal after a roughly 10% drop. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% before rebounding above that level, reflecting investors' ongoing asset reallocation to hedge against market uncertainty.
The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on Wednesday, October 29, 2025, which was fully anticipated following last week's cooling CPI data. This suggests that tariff-related inflationary pressures may represent a one-time shock rather than lasting harm. Additionally, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown since October 1, 2025, has further weakened the labor market. The Fed must balance the two factors, inflation and employment, to fulfill its dual mandate when setting rates in December.
In another dovish move, the Fed is concluding the reduction of its $6.6 trillion balance sheet amid signs of tightening money market liquidity and declining bank reserves. This will ease liquidity constraints as the central bank ceases to withdraw funds from the system, starting December 1.
Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a hawkish message indicating that a December rate cut is not predetermined, market expectations still lean toward another 25 basis point reduction, with roughly a two-thirds probability. However, renewed supply chain disruptions or trade war escalation could drive higher inflation, potentially compelling the Fed to pause cuts in December.
Regarding the regional bank debt default risks that sparked market panic and caused BTC to form a needle wick retest near $103,500 on October 17, 2025, our desk views the associated threats as contained. Post-Dodd-Frank Act reforms have strengthened debt supervision and regulation compared to pre-2008 levels, making potential risks more manageable for the Fed.
Our desk anticipates the market will continue trading within this broad range, as shown in the chart, and consolidate for some time before establishing a clear direction. A decisive break of the range boundaries without a reclaim back to the range within 24 hours would confirm the next market phase.
Bitcoin ETF Tracker
The above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.
As shown in the table above, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net capital outflow of $8 million over the past five trading sessions. The substantial $470 million capital outflow last night following the FOMC meeting suggests that investors are repositioning their portfolios with respect to BTC exposure.
After positive developments from the trade negotiation teams of both the US and China, the market turned optimistic, and our desk observed consistent capital inflows into BTC spot ETFs, a clear vote of confidence from investors with their capital. However, the hawkish tone from Fed Chair Powell weighed on the market, with US stocks closing modestly lower and the BTC price dipping below $110,000.
Based on the data we monitor, our desk believes the market is in a consolidation phase and searching for direction. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts may persist for some time, awaiting greater clarity on improvements in market liquidity and developments in key macro events before a clear trend emerges.
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