There are significant risks, such as being banned by governments, quantum computers, or the decline in the profitability of mining?
It's a vast topic and you could confidently write about it in two books, and in fact, you can already find such books.
However, briefly, I see it this way:
Every revolutionary technology initially raises concerns.
Do you remember when it was said that the internet was just a passing fad?
How did blacksmiths boycott cars?
How people still burned candles at home because 'demons lived in light bulbs' (seriously, it was like that).
The arguments you present, I've been hearing about Bitcoin since 2017, and yet the project is becoming stronger and stronger.
Yes, risks exist, but the probability of their occurrence decreases year by year, rather than increases.
Ban by governments?
It was a real threat even in 2020.
Today, as the USA officially creates reserves in BTC, and the largest institutions build their products on it, such a move would be a shot in the foot for the entire Western economy.
Countries have understood that you don't fight technology, you adapt to it.
Can you imagine a leader of a country who still sits with his arms crossed and says 'we won't have the internet' because 'electricity, because environmental pollution, because regulations, because centralization, because this place is only for illegal trade and contacts of criminal organizations'.
And quantum computers?
If quantum computers break Bitcoin's encryption, it means they will also break the security of banking, military, and government systems worldwide.
Bitcoin will be our smallest problem. Moreover, with the development of quantum threats, quantum security measures are also evolving.
Decline in mining profitability?
The computational power of the network (hashrate) is now 250 times greater than in 2017.
Back then, they were already warning that the network would be 'hacked', and somehow no one succeeded. Today, it is 250x harder.
Even if half of the miners withdrew, the network would still be over 100 times safer than it was then.
Moreover, the increase in the price of Bitcoin and the development of second layers (L2) on Bitcoin will ensure consistent income for miners from transaction fees, making them independent of block rewards.
I am betting on this scenario, and it does not stem from certainty, but from risk calculation and comparison of BTC with other assets.
Because do you think that when quantum computers come in, the tech companies you invested in will be safe?
Or maybe the treasury bond market, where quantum computers won't mess things up?
And real estate and war? Etc.
My optimism for Bitcoin does not stem from ignoring risks, but from observing how Bitcoin over the years is becoming more resilient to them.
It is not perfect, but definitely at this stage, it outshines other assets in the world for those who understand volatility and can withstand it.
It’s not like I’m investing everything ALL IN.
I still prefer diversification because the biggest risk I know exists is not the obvious ones that everyone talks about.
These are the risks we don’t know exist. As investment gurus say, 'you don’t know what you don’t know'.
Such black, fat swans that I know will someday come but I don’t know from where.
Diversification and a long term are two things that, in my opinion, give us a very large chance of success.
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