The issue currently pressing on the markets is the government shutdown and reaching a government spending law.

The current situation is complex and reflects a division and problem between the two main parties (Republican and Democratic), and the expectations of reopening are still not definitively certain for November.

There are signals regarding any near solution to reach a political settlement,

The available solution now is a Continuing Resolution (CR) to pass a bill to fund the government for a short period to facilitate business (perhaps until November or December), allowing additional time for negotiations on larger spending bills.

The economic implications of a prolonged shutdown

Although previous shutdowns did not cause significant and long-term disruptions in financial markets, the continuation of the current shutdown raises increasing economic concerns.

1- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Economic estimates, such as Goldman Sachs, predict that the shutdown will lead to a reduction in real GDP growth rate by 0.15 percentage points during the fourth quarter of 2025, and this negative impact will increase with each week of shutdown.

2- Employment and consumption: Forcing hundreds of thousands of federal employees into unpaid leave leads to a decline in consumption and a temporary rise in the unemployment rate, which harms economic activity.