I share with you my perspective on the current situation without emotion, fear, greed, or bias towards any direction, logically and with patience, please bear with me. Bitcoin is now 87 thousand.
The market has only two directions: up or down, and there are two scenarios: either a bull market or a bear market, and we all differ on this now, right?
I will try to explain in simple terms without technical jargon so that those who do not have information about the structure and composition of the chart and the connection between different time frames can benefit.
1- The first negative scenario.
The worst scenario is that we are in a bear market, right?
Okay, let's go along with this scenario.
Firstly, the bear market consists of descending waves followed by corrective ascending waves and bull traps for many reasons, including stagnation and the entry of small investors' cash and their suspension, and then it resumes its descent in the main direction of the market.
Therefore, it is natural and logical to expect a price trap and bull trap to clear short futures contracts.
And the most important thing to raise the bottoms of currencies because in the bear market, currencies drop by 90% to 99%, and if this happens from the current prices, 95% of currencies will go to zero. Therefore, a bull trap rebound of 200% to 500% for currencies to lift the bottoms means a rise followed by a drop similar to October 10, a drop of 90% to 95% for currencies. This is the worst scenario. Also, honestly, the rise of currencies will be for limited and surprising currencies in the rise, as happened with currency TNSR which rose 10x in the last 48 hours.
Also, keep in mind that this is not for all currencies. Some currencies are set to go to zero or die slowly due to the team's weakness, greed, or ineffectiveness of the project, and the currency will not react to the bull trap, with the last rebound being 20% to 60% at most. Therefore, now is an opportunity to rearrange your portfolio and switch positions, and try to choose currencies that have large investors like A16Z and Coinbase, and that are added to major platforms like Binance and Coinbase, and it is preferable to be network currencies.
2- The positive scenario..
- As for the positive scenario, the market rises and achieves historical peaks, and all of this is a correction, especially since Bitcoin's correction rate during this cycle is 31% to 33% from the highest peak it reached. This is what happened now, a drop of 31% from the last peak, meaning it is close to the end of the correction and rebound and support areas from the current range up to 85,000 at most for the rebound range, God willing.
- Therefore, for the upcoming rebound wave, try to make a plan for dealing and do not be greedy. Save what can be saved with the upcoming rebound, God willing, either by activating a stop loss or exiting until Bitcoin breaks its peak and you confirm the direction, and then you can trade on currencies with a stop loss or after breaking 74,000 and wait for no less than 6 months in cash, and then start filtering and monitoring the market for opportunities.
And note for the integrity that Bitcoin on the monthly frame has begun to show strong signs of weakening trend on the momentum indicators RSI and MACD. Of course, to confirm we need at least three months to confirm negativity on the monthly frame, meaning after the annual close. This is what I expect, a rise for Bitcoin to close the annual candle green. Therefore, I expect a rebound wave from this month at most until next March for some currencies. If your currency rises before March, do not stay in the market until March, and the earlier you exit, the safer it will be for you until the direction becomes clear, and it will be better for you, God willing.
And God knows best.
