This Friday, the last day of October, marks the end of the month. When the monthly line appears, doesn't it feel a bit chilly and cold at a high position?

There are only two months left in the 25th year, and the probability of 126,200 forming the top of this bull market is increasing. If 126,200 is indeed the peak of this bull market, then Bitcoin will enter a bear market for some time.

Let's observe the regularity from the monthly K-line of Bitcoin. First, from the time period, after Bitcoin peaked in December 2017, it maintained a bear market for 13 months before bottoming out, and the market did not start to rebound until February 2019. In the first half of 2019, there was a small bull market, which peaked in June of the same year, after which the market experienced a bear market for 9 months, until it bottomed out on March 12-13, 2020. The small bull market cycle of Bitcoin in 2019 lasted only 5 months and did not reach a new high, and can only be seen as a secondary impact on the high point of the 2017 bull market, still overall belonging to the prologue of the big bull market from 2020 to 2021.

During the 2020-2021 phase, Bitcoin's bull market peaked in November 2021 and turned bearish until it bottomed in November 2022. After the peak of the bull market in 2021, Bitcoin experienced a 12-month bear market before hitting the bottom. Following this pattern, the bear market after the end of Bitcoin's bull market could last for as long as one year.

Looking again at the months when Bitcoin reached its peak in a bull market, there is a considerable regularity (assuming that 126,200 in October is the peak of this bull market). The bull market in 2017 peaked in December, in 2021 it peaked in November, and in 2025 it peaked in October. The time cycle between peaks is 3 years and 11 months. If this pattern holds, the next peak of the Bitcoin bull market is likely to be around September 2029.

If the peak of Bitcoin in October 2025 is 126,200, from a timing perspective, then the bottom of this bear market is likely to be around November 2026 +/- 1 month.

Looking at the price ranges at the bottom of the previous two Bitcoin bear markets, there is also something interesting; both occurred after breaking key long-term support levels, with the price nearly halving. At the end of 2018, Bitcoin fell below the 9-month platform at 6,000 and hit the bottom nearly halving. In 2022, it fell below the one-year support at 28,800, hitting the bottom nearly halving. Following this pattern, the next bottom of Bitcoin in a bear market should occur after falling below 74,500, hitting the bottom nearly halving. With institutional participation in this bull market, perhaps the market's bear market won't see the same significant halving as the previous two, reaching the bottom in the 38,000-40,000 range after breaking long-term support. However, it should at least wait until the long-term support level of 74,500 is broken before entering to buy the dip.

Looking back at the bottoms of the bear markets in 2018 and 2022, they occurred two to three months after breaking key long-term support levels, as the market approached the long-term relative bottom price range.

In summary, the time for the next long-term bottom buying of Bitcoin in a bull market is around October 2026, or two to three months after the long-term support level of 74,500 is broken. At that point, Bitcoin will have entered the relative bottom range of the bear market, and the cost-effectiveness of long-term buying Bitcoin will be very high. For long-term traders who only go long and do not short, starting from now, returning to the market a year later can acquire relatively cheap chips and wait for the next bull market to rebound.