Experts warn: Bitcoin may face a "dark November"
Price patterns repeat over the years
Cryptocurrency analyst Timothy Peterson has recently issued a warning on social media, stating that Bitcoin is at risk of a sharp decline in November, based on a price model similar to previous years.
He noticed that the recent 4-month trend of Bitcoin is similar to 91%, 90%, 92%, and 82% compared to the cycles of the years 2011, 2014, 2018, and 2022.
“In most of these periods, Bitcoin has suffered heavy losses in November,” Peterson emphasized.
November 8 – a concerning timeline
Peterson specifically warned about the period around November 8, when Bitcoin often falls into the “30th percentile price path” – meaning a price area lower than historical average.
He noted that the two weeks in mid-November are also when Bitcoin has frequently faced difficulties in the last 4 years.
According to Peterson, this is not a coincidence, but a “seasonal risk” that has repeated in market history.
Pressure from macroeconomic factors
Peterson stated that the risk of a price drop comes not only from technical factors but also from macroeconomic elements.
“Mid-November is when companies announce their third-quarter results and forecast next year's profits. When expectations are lowered, capital often withdraws from risky assets – and Bitcoin is also affected,” he said.
The analyst recalled past shocks: the “crypto winter of 2018” began in November, the FTX crash occurred on November 8, 2022, and the Mt. Gox scandal also erupted in November 2013.
He concluded: “The market is tense, VIX is rising, and stocks are being sold off – it seems like everyone is waiting for a sell signal.”
