Bitcoin has dropped significantly from the new high set earlier this year, and market sentiment is once again at a familiar crossroads. Panic and greed intertwine, and the bearish voices are incessant. Many are asking: Has the bear market really arrived?
Instead of speculating aimlessly, let's conduct a 'digital archaeology' by laying out historical data and calmly discussing the typical characteristics ingrained in the transition between Bitcoin bull and bear markets.
1. The Historical Mirror: What Does the Bottom of a Bear Market Look Like?
Since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced several dramatic transitions between bull and bear markets. Each bear market bottom is not a single point; they usually share several 'tragic' commonalities:
A huge decline, a humiliating halving. History never lies. In January 2015, Bitcoin dropped over 80% from its peak, with a price remaining around $180; in December 2018, there was another 80% level crash, bottoming out at $3200; even in the most recent cycle, the bottom in November 2022 reached $15.797, marking a decline of 76.7% from the peak. In simple terms, a true bear market bottom comes at the cost of most people's assets being wiped out or their beliefs collapsing.
Extreme panic and despair. Data is cold, but market sentiment has warmth. In the true bottom area, what permeates is not the luck of 'should I buy the dip' but the utter despair of 'is cryptocurrency a scam?' As described by analysts, this stage is characterized by forced liquidations and sellers running out of steam. The media is flooded with negative news, once-bustling communities have become desolate, and even the most steadfast 'HODLers' begin to question life. When everyone is discussing exiting the market, only then can the bottom quietly arrive in silence.
A long period of consolidation wears away everyone's patience. The end of a bear market is often not a V-shaped reversal but a long, tedious bottoming process. Prices will repeatedly rub within a very narrow range, rising a bit before falling back, and falling deep before being pulled up a bit. This process may last for months or even longer, with only one goal: to exhaust the last bit of speculative power and allow the market to complete a thorough turnover.
Second, where are we now?
Well, after reviewing history, let's bring our focus back to the present - November 2025.
This year has seen a deep pullback after reaching a new high. Many people feel a significant reduction in their accounts, and panic is spreading.
However, compared to historical 'true bear' bottoms, does it feel right?
First, from the perspective of the decline, although the current pullback is deep, it still seems to fall short compared to historical declines of over 80%. Second, from the market sentiment perspective, although panic is rampant, we can still see that a large number of institutions and investors are discussing 'when to buy the dip' and 'which track is the next hot spot.' The market's attention has not completely dissipated, which is distinctly different from the despair and neglect at the end of a bear market.
An interesting observation is that as the market matures, the decline in each round of Bitcoin's bear market seems to be gently narrowing. From an initial decline of over 90%, to a subsequent range of 80%, and then to the last round's 76.7%, this might indicate that with more long-term capital entering the market, the extreme volatility is slowly decreasing.
Therefore, the current position feels more like a 'high-altitude reaction' in the journey of a bull market, a sharp but possibly not fatal dip. Saying it has already entered the depths of a bear market seems to lack sufficient evidence.
Third, the 'mirror' of on-chain data.
If price and sentiment can be misleading, then on-chain data is like a precision instrument. Here are two very useful indicators:
MVRV Ratio: the market's 'overall profit thermometer'.
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is a very classic indicator. You can simply understand it as: how many times the current total market value of Bitcoin is compared to the average holding cost of all holders.
MVRV > 3.5: History tells us that when this value exceeds 3.5, it indicates that the overall floating profit in the market is huge, everyone is a stock god, and the market is extremely euphoric, which is often a dangerous signal for the top of a bull market.
MVRV < 1: When this value falls below 1, it indicates that the total market value has fallen below everyone's average cost. In other words, the entire market is in a state of 'overall loss.' This is usually the bear market bottom area where the market surrenders and there is gold everywhere.
So, what is the current MVRV? It is around 1.8. This position is neither high nor low. It is not as ridiculously cheap as <1, nor has it reached the madness of >3.5. It feels more like a healthy pullback in the mid-stage of a bull market, cleaning out the overheated leverage and floating profits to prepare for the next phase of the market.
SOPR Indicator: the 'sentiment barometer' of investors.
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures whether all the Bitcoin sold on that day is overall sold at a profit or a loss.
SOPR > 1: This means that those selling on that day are, overall, making a profit.
SOPR < 1: This means that those selling on that day are, overall, exiting at a loss. This is often a sign of panic selling and surrender behavior.
At the bottom of the bear market, we will see SOPR continuously operating below 1, indicating that investors are constantly 'cutting their losses.' In our current market, although SOPR briefly fell below 1 during several sharp declines, it quickly regained its ground and stabilized again. This indicates that the market's absorption capacity is still present, and there has not been a sustained large-scale loss exit. This feels more like a 'shakeout' rather than a desperate sell-off of a bear market.
By combining historical features, current positions, and on-chain data, we can draw a relatively clear conclusion:
Despite the harsh winds of the market, what we are currently experiencing feels more like a deep adjustment in the mid-stage of a bull market rather than the beginning of an epic bear market like those in 2018 or 2022. Historical bear market bottoms, whether in terms of declines, market sentiment, or on-chain data, present a more extreme 'tragic situation.'
Of course, history does not repeat itself exactly, but it always carries remarkably similar rhythms. Understanding these cyclical characteristics is not for the precise prediction of tops and bottoms—no one can do that—but to provide a calm coordinate system for you when the market falls into collective madness or extreme panic.
The support and attention of everyone is our greatest motivation to produce better works continuously! Thank you all~
