Overnight, global risk assets faced a comprehensive sell-off, with all three major U.S. stock indexes collectively declining, each dropping more than 1.6%. Tech stocks became the hardest hit, with major stocks like Tesla and Nvidia leading the decline. Safe-haven assets were also not spared, with spot gold and silver each falling about 1%. The cryptocurrency market also dropped, with Bitcoin declining by 2.6% during the day, falling below 9w8, marking a new low since early May. Market volatility caused the total liquidation amount across the network to reach $634 million in the past 12 hours, with long positions accounting for as much as 87.5%. This synchronized decline across various assets has prompted a deep examination of the current bull market's quality and sustainability.
Seek truth from facts. Although we have been in a bearish mindset, we still believe there would be some rebound after hitting the bottom, so we set up a long position. Reviewing our strategy: the one who buys is the apprentice, the one who sells is the master. Yesterday, we set up a long position at 101500, reduced half at 103500 with a breakeven stop-loss, and closed all remaining positions at 102500. Then the market directly broke the 100,000 mark. Upon review, you will find that the entry point was basically at the intraday bottom, the reduction point was also relatively high, and the exit point was truly ahead of the waterfall.
The Bitcoin 100,000 defense battle ultimately failed, which confirms the viewpoint that repeated tests of support are not support, as there is huge liquidity below. Currently, it is a market searching for liquidity. Breaking below 100,000 has always been our predicted viewpoint, and the key focus for a major rebound is in the 94000-92000 range, where multiple resonance points lie, including the weekly trend line after breaking above 15000 and the futures gap fill. The last round of increase at 61.8 is crucial here.
From the daily structure, it is in a very obvious bearish structure, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Therefore, the bearish trend is established. The market presents a bearish trend, so just follow the trend to short. Moreover, I believe that there is still no obvious reversal signal. Firstly, it is within a downward slope. If it directly reverses here, it must be a V-shaped reversal, which requires a continuous and rapid decline with volume. If accompanied by a bottom wick, that would be best. Otherwise, we should still honestly explore the bottom and build a bottom accumulation structure.
If you do not have a short position, it is not appropriate to chase positions now, as the market is in a bearish gathering moment. Even at 99660, there is a gathering of 100 million in liquidation chips. The short-term rebound point I am focusing on today is in the 97500-97000 range, which is also the liquidation price for bulls at the bottom and the breakout point after previous adjustments. Pay attention to the price action at this level; of course, this is a counter-trend rebound, and the prudent may choose to observe while focusing on resistance around 101700 above.
In the early morning, pay attention to the support at 3150/3200. If it holds without breaking, there is hope for an oversold rebound. The market must return above the resistance at 3420 to stop the decline. If it breaks below the support at 3150/3200 and cannot quickly recover, the market will likely retest the previous low of 3050.
Member voting feedback:
The big bull focuses on technical analysis and is not good with words. More importantly, it is responsible for all members. When the market is good, we do a few more trades together; when the market is bad, we rest with appropriate positions.
More than half of the friends believe that the winning rate of the big bull is over 70%. In fact, a single winning rate does not explain much. Those familiar with the big bull's trading mindset should know that our every layout has a risk-reward ratio greater than 1.5. Maintaining such a high winning rate at high risk-reward ratios speaks volumes about its value.
Lastly, I would like to remind everyone that the cryptocurrency circle is mixed with both good and bad, and there are too many bloggers deceiving others. There are no entry signals or profit-taking signals, and the next second they claim they have taken profit.
If you feel confused about the future, I will share strategic layouts in a small circle! Welcome to join our big family to seize the next hotspot together and maximize investment returns!
