Now the Federal Reserve and the market are playing a game of psychological warfare, with the market always hoping for an early interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. However, the Federal Reserve deliberately keeps them guessing, fearing being tied down by market expectations, which makes everyone quite uncomfortable.
The market always believes that if the data is bad, the Federal Reserve will surely cut rates soon, so they speculate on interest rate cuts in advance. But the Federal Reserve doesn’t want to be led by the nose, frequently issuing some 'hawkish' statements to remind everyone: don't be too optimistic, rate cuts are not yet determined. Recently, #美国政府 data has often been interrupted, and the market can only rely on officials' speeches to guess the market trends. Once news breaks, the volatility is significant, but these fluctuations are actually unreliable, as new data can easily contradict them. There is also internal debate within the Federal Reserve; some fear inflation, while others fear unemployment, which is actually to keep options open and not make definitive statements. The market is much more optimistic about future rate cuts than the Federal Reserve itself, and every time the Federal Reserve 'talks hawkishly,' it is a reminder not to bet too aggressively. Ultimately, the decision will depend on future economic data, as the Federal Reserve is just laying the groundwork for two possibilities, no matter which direction it takes, it can still come full circle.
Now it’s a mutual guessing game between the Federal Reserve and the market #博弈 , neither side allows the other to guess accurately, resulting in various back-and-forths, making it easy for anyone betting on direction to get slapped in the face.
