Ripple has historically achieved strong returns in the fourth quarter, averaging 134%, with unrealized losses rising again, indicating a potential setup for an upcoming recovery.
The long/short MVRV spread is approaching neutrality with XRP consolidating between $2.20 and $2.50, awaiting a decisive breakout later this year.
A break above $2.50 could target $2.64–$3.02; XRP may remain within a defined range, delaying the breakout until strong momentum shows in the fourth quarter before the end of the year again.
Ripple is trading sideways after a period of volatility that reflected its movement in the third quarter. The altcoin maintained a narrow range despite increased activity in the market.
Historical patterns now indicate a potential shift, with Ripple showing familiar signs once again before strong performance in the fourth quarter.
XRP's mirror to its past in many ways
Historically, the fourth quarter has been one of the strongest periods for Ripple. Over the past 12 years, the average return for the coin in the fourth quarter has been 134%. While such gains are unlikely to be repeated in the coming weeks, the trend highlights the strength of seasonal assets in the long term and indicates conditions that often precede upward retracements.
This historical resilience positions Ripple as one of the few major cryptocurrencies that consistently benefit from year-end momentum.
Quarterly Ripple returns. Source: CryptoRank
Unrealized losses are rising again, creating conditions that previously caused strong retracements. Investors often push prices up when losses increase, driven by the incentive to regain value. The same behavior was observed in November 2024, April 2025, and June 2025, each followed by a clear upward movement.
If this pattern repeats, Ripple may be poised for recovery driven by renewed buying pressure. The recent rise in unrealized losses indicates increasing tension in the market, usually preceding breakouts as investors attempt to regain profits.
Relative unrealized losses for Ripple. Source: Glassnode
The long/short-term market capitalization to book value difference indicator is trending down toward neutral territory. This suggests that long-term holders are witnessing shrinking profits, often a precursor to changes in short-term holder behavior. A drop below neutral would indicate rising short-term profits, potentially leading to a short sell as traders take profits.
The indicator typically climbs back into positive territory after this phase. When long-term holders' profits rise again, XRP may follow with an upward price movement. This dynamic indicates potential for stronger gains if the market aligns with previous cycles.
Long/short difference for XRP MVRV. Source: Santiment
The price of XRP is awaiting a catalyst
XRP is trading at $2.28 after moving sideways for several weeks following a 22% drop in October. The consolidation reflects market caution but also shows resilience as buyers continue to defend key levels amid short-term uncertainty.
Current indicators suggest a positive outlook supporting a move above $2.50, a critical psychological area. A breakout above this level could allow XRP to surpass $2.64 and potentially reach $3.02, helping the token recover October losses.
XRP price analysis. Source: TradingView
However, XRP has been in a sideways movement for 34 days, similar to late July after another 22% collapse. If history repeats, XRP may continue to range between $2.20 and $2.50, with no major breakout until stronger momentum appears.
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