This FALL IN BITCOIN AND THE CONSEQUENT ALARMS THAT EVERYTHING HAS GONE TO M. REMEMBER THAT in 1929, in the midst of the Great Depression, Joseph P. Kennedy, a shrewd American investor, experienced a moment that would change everything.
While polishing shoes, the shoeshiner, who had no experience in markets, advised him to sell all his stocks because "everything was going badly".
This advice, far from alarming him, was a key signal for Kennedy. When everyone has an opinion (and they are not experts), the market is at its turning point.
Instead of selling, Kennedy aggressively bought stocks, anticipating the market rebound. His decision made him a billionaire.
Today, we hear similar echoes in the Bitcoin market. Alarmist headlines, bearish memes on social media, and the "everyone is selling" make us question:
Are we really in a bear market or is it just a correction within a bullish cycle?
Let's analyze it objectively:
What does the evidence say?
According to current data, Bitcoin has entered a technical bear market, as its price has fallen more than 20% from its recent all-time high ($126,210 in October 2025).
However, it does not meet the criteria of a historical bear market in cryptocurrencies, such as declines of 70–85%, extreme volatility, and prolonged duration (6–18 months).
Therefore, the evidence (on-chain data, historical and statistical) suggests that we are in a deep correction within a bullish cycle, rather than in a structural bear market.
A LITTLE SERIOUSNESS: Evidence and quantitative analysis
To understand where we are, let's take a look at the key metrics:
Metric
Value (November 2025)
Interpretation
Current price
$93,600
26% below ATH
All-time high (ATH)
$126,210 (October 2025)
Drawdown from ATH
−25.8%
Exceeds the technical threshold of bear
Volatility (30 days)
3.06%
Very low for a historical bear
Duration of the correction
41 days
Very short for a historical bear
Fear & Greed Index
10 (Extreme fear)
Bearish sentiment
RSI (14 days)
32.57
Close to oversold
Price vs. MA 50/200 days
Below both
Bearish technical signal
📉 Comparison with historical bear markets:
To evaluate the current situation against previous Bitcoin cycles, let’s consider these criteria:
Criterion
Technical bear market
Historical bear market (BTC)
Drop from the maximum
>20%
70–85%
Volatility
Low/Medium
Very high (>50%)
Duration
Weeks/months
6–18 months
Sentiment
Bearish
Total capitulation
Price below moving averages
Yes
Yes
Conclusion:
Bitcoin meets the criteria of a technical bear market, but not those of a historical bear market. The declines are much smaller, volatility is unusually low, and the duration is very brief.
Let's go with statistical and probabilistic results: WHAT IS THE PERCENTAGE OF A HISTORICAL BEAR MARKET? FLIPPING THE COIN...
Based on historical data and simulations:
Technical bear market probability: 100% (all technical indicators confirm this).
Probability of historical bear market: 26.5% (most data does not support it).
Probability of deep correction within a bull market: 73.5%.
Volatility and duration: Well below historical averages of bear markets.
Even using Monte Carlo analysis, only 17.9% of scenarios simulate a much deeper fall, reinforcing the idea that this correction is limited.
Finally, as a conclusion and not as investment advice, Bitcoin has entered a technical bear market according to the classic definition (drop >20%, bearish signals), but the statistical evidence shows that we are not in a historical bear market like those seen in previous cycles.
For now, the correction seems more like a pause within a bullish cycle, so we must monitor the duration, volatility, and new lows to confirm if the correction turns into a structural bear market.
What to do SELL OR NOT TO SELL? THE DILEMMA
As in the story of Kennedy's shoemaker, markets reward those who think differently. In times of extreme fear, like now, opportunities are hidden. While there is uncertainty, data suggests we may be facing a key moment to prepare, not to panic.
Remember the great lesson these markets teach us: Fortunes are built in times of fear, not in times of euphoria.
#MarketPullback
These are times for reading.
