At 3 AM, the on-chain alarm suddenly rang! The operations of the whale 'nemorino.eth' left the entire market gasping: On November 6, he spent 17.06 million to buy nearly 5000 ETH, holding it for a full 12 days. This morning, when ETH dropped to $3087, he ultimately had to sell all, suffering a loss of 1.804 million!
This is no coincidence! Every time the whale cuts its losses, it serves as a blood-soaked warning for retail investors. The core question arises: Can ETH break through the $3260 resistance tonight, or will it crash through the $3000 support? Considering this bloody whale operation, and in contrast to the 'golden cross trap' on the candlestick chart, I will candidly share three key points:
The first point from the news perspective is that the whale is 'fleeing', definitely not 'washing the盘'.
Many people think the whale's selling off is normal wave operation, but on-chain data doesn’t lie: this whale bought in when ETH was still at a high of 3450 USD, clearly aiming for a rebound. But he stubbornly held for 12 days, watching the price drop from 3450 to 3087, yet never reduced positions at crucial levels like 3200 or 3100—behind this is a complete disappointment in the future market!
The whale has enough capital and far better risk resistance than retail investors; even he is willing to take a loss and exit, which is enough to illustrate that the market has no reversal signal in the short term, and the current core action is 'fleeing'.
The second point on the technical side is that the golden cross is a trap, and the rebound is hard to sustain.
Looking at the one-hour K-line, ETH rebounded from 3087 to 3189, seemingly strong, but it actually hides a fatal risk: the MACD white and yellow lines form a golden cross below the 0 axis—this is not a reversal signal, but a 'flash in the pan'! It’s like a person with a 39-degree fever taking a fever-reducing medicine to drop to 38 degrees; it does not mean the illness is cured.
What’s more critical is the divergence between the pressure level and volume: the upper 3260 USD is the life-and-death line for bulls and bears, but the volume of the current rebounding red bars hasn’t expanded, indicating that the bulls aren’t putting in much effort. If it can’t break past 3260 USD, this wave of rebound is a typical trap for bulls, and it could be smashed back to the crucial 3100 USD level at any time, or even directly fall below 3000 USD!
The third point is to advise everyone not to be greedy and not to hesitate!
If it doesn’t get past 3260, absolutely do not chase the rise: if ETH can’t break 3260 USD before 9 PM tonight, it indicates that the whale’s selling pressure is still there, and the rebound could end at any time; chasing in is like catching flying knives!
Once 3100 is broken, decisively reduce positions: if it falls back below 3100 USD, cut down to 30% with light positions, and run half with heavy positions. Don’t hold onto the fantasy of 'it will rebound'.
Around 3000, buy in batches: if it really falls to 3000 USD, the whale's selling pressure will basically be cleared, but you can layout in batches with stop losses, betting on a severely oversold rebound.
The most miserable thing in the crypto world is not losing money, but 'being greedy when you should run, and hesitating when you should buy'. If this whale had set a stop loss at 3100 USD early, it wouldn't have lost 1.8 million; now that he's sold off, ETH will likely drop again for two more days. Remember: respect the market, follow the signals, that is the key to survival! Follow me @加密小杨 to learn more news #加密市场回调 #美国加征关税 $ETH
