An increasing number of experts are convinced that the classic four-year bitcoin cycles are losing significance. The CEO of Bitwise claims that cryptocurrencies operate today according to completely new rules.
Bitwise rejects the theory of cyclicality.
ETFs and US politics have a greater impact on BTC than halving.
The crypto market in a new reality
Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, believes that the months-long correction is coming to an end, and the bitcoin market is in a transition phase to the next increases. In his opinion, investors should 'abandon the thinking of the previous era', based on halving and four-year cycles, as institutions and spot ETFs dominate the market today.
Horsley emphasizes that the outflow of capital from funds is the main reason for the current weakness of BTC, but the situation could change quickly with further interest rate cuts and the end of quantitative tightening by the Fed.
The second key factor is the actions of the US administration. Donald Trump's pro-cryptocurrency policy, and even announcements of building a government BTC reserve, create conditions that are diametrically different from those during Biden's time – the time of the collapse of Terra, FTX, and aggressive pressure from regulators.
According to Horsley, the fundamentals of the market are stronger today than ever: institutions are buying bitcoin, the Fed is easing policy, and ETFs are creating a new dynamic where cycles no longer matter.
