Recently, the market has been falling, causing panic among people, and many are asking, 'Is it really turning bearish?' In fact, a few key signals make it clear: the 50-week moving average can't hold, the gap at 92000 has been filled, old players are starting to sell coins, ETF money is flowing out, and traditional financial money is tightening as well. Combining these latest situations, let's chat in plain language to help you clarify your judgment.
First, the conclusion: several core signals are indeed pointing to a bear market.
The 50-week moving average that you care about the most has broken, and this is really not a small issue. Looking back, this line is the long-term 'bull-bear dividing line' for Bitcoin—if the weekly close really can't hold, it basically means the big trend is about to change.
What is even more concerning is the futures market: recently, futures prices are actually lower than spot prices (that is, 'negative basis'), which is the first time since March. Simply put, no one is willing to leverage bets on rising now; everyone is afraid of risks, and if this sentiment shifts, it will not be good for the market.
92000 is a hurdle: if it holds, there will be a rebound; if it doesn't hold, it will continue to fall.
The 92000 dollars you mentioned is now the critical point for bulls and bears. There is a lot of buying and selling at this position; it is the current 'line of life and death'.
If it can hold 92000, it might rebound.
If it can't hold, the next step is to see if the range of 85000 to 80000 can hold.
So keeping an eye on 92000 is correct; its fluctuations directly determine the short-term trend.
Who is selling? Mainly three types of people.
The 'old players cashing out' and 'ETF lacking money to enter' you mentioned can be matched with on-chain data; specifically, these three types of people are selling.
1. Early old players cashing out: After rising for so long, some people who entered the market early are starting to sell coins in batches to cash out, which is common in the later stages of a bull market, but the scale of sales needs to be noted.
2. ETF money is flowing out: The Bitcoin spot ETF in the US has been experiencing 'net outflows' recently, meaning institutions are not buying anymore. If there is no one to take over, when someone sells, prices can easily drop.
3. New large holders forced to cut losses: At the end of October, a batch of new large holders entered the market; when they bought, it was around 110000 dollars, and now many are losing a lot. Some cannot hold on and either face forced liquidation or can only sell at a loss. In contrast, those 'old whales' who have been in for a long time still have relatively stable positions.
There is also a hidden risk: traditional financial liquidity has tightened.
The 'tight liquidity in traditional finance' you noticed is the potential hidden danger that could trigger significant volatility.
Currently, the dollar liquidity between banks is somewhat tight. Although the Federal Reserve has tools for 'emergency borrowing', banks are afraid of being labeled as 'out of money' and dare not use them. This indicates that there may be hidden pressures in the financial system that we haven't seen.
Additionally, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has also decreased. Previously, everyone was looking forward to rate cuts to inject liquidity, but now it seems there are internal disputes within the Federal Reserve, with some wanting to cut quickly and others fearing that inflation will rise again if cuts happen. Without injecting liquidity, there will be less money in the market, which is not beneficial for the situation.
Are there opportunities in a bear market? First, understand these two points.
Although the short-term trend is down, when the market is too panicked, it may actually be close to a short-term bottom—historically, when negative basis in futures appears, it sometimes coincides with the bottom area of adjustments in a bull market.
But now, if you want to bottom fish, you need to think clearly about two things.
1. Can it withstand the risk of continued decline? Don't think about buying at the lowest point.
2. Never buy all at once; you should enter slowly in batches.
Even if it really turns into a bear market, not all sectors will be without opportunities.
Assets in the 'real world' that institutions like BlackRock value (such as ONDO) may rebound first when the market warms up.
There are still some infrastructure tracks, such as modular data and DePIN, and recently there has been capital investment, indicating that someone is optimistic in the long term.
Finally, here’s a practical operational suggestion; it varies for different people.
Short-term players: Reduce positions during rebounds, don't easily go long. Focus on whether 92000 can hold—if it holds, you can try a small position, but be sure to set a stop loss; if it doesn't hold, don't act and wait for 85000-80000.
Long-term players: Don't move your core position, don't panic sell. You can dollar-cost average in batches at key support levels (such as below 85000).
Stable players: Keep more cash on hand and make fewer moves. Wait for two signals: either Bitcoin regains the 50-week moving average or the Federal Reserve clearly states it will cut rates.
In summary: the signals of a bear market are quite obvious. Even if there is a rebound, if it can't recover the 50-week moving average, that's just a 'dead cat bounce', don't take it seriously. The market is undergoing a test, be patient and wait for the market to adjust itself and for the fundamentals to improve before making decisions.
How long do you think this wave of bear market can last? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
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