Here is the banal market mechanics:

• BTC — this is the 'anchor of risk'

When Bitcoin's dominance >50%, everything else automatically turns into derivatives. Large funds first enter/exit through BTC.

• ETH — too big to pump like an alt, but too small to become a global reserve

It is between worlds.

And while Bitcoin sets the trend, Ethereum will dance to the same frequency, just with a different amplitude.

• ETF ETH has not yet revealed its potential

Fact: Spot-ETF on Ethereum has not yet created the same flows as BTC-ETF.

This slows down the separation.

---

🧩 2. What can actually decouple ETH from BTC?

Ethereum needs not to 'get lucky', but to mature three major forces at once:

✔ 1. Mass DeFi growth 2.0

If a new wave of DeFi begins, but not speculative (like 2020), but infrastructure-based, where Ethereum is used as fuel → ETH will become a systemic asset, not a trading alt.

✔ 2. Sustainable deflationary cycle

If during the hype period the network burns so intensely that ETH becomes objectively scarce → the market will not care about BTC dominance.

✔ 3. Institutional adoption of ETH not as 'second', but as 'network asset'

If funds start using Ethereum as an infrastructure asset for Web3, rather than a speculative derivative.

---

🧩 3. When can ETH 'live its own life'?

The most honest range:

2026–2028 years.

Why not earlier:

— while BTC is heading towards its $150–200k, the market is focused on it

— ETH does not make 'breakthroughs', only evolutionary upgrades

— institutions are too cautious

After the next halving of Bitcoin and the next cycle of capital inflow — that is where the opportunity will arise.

---

🧩 4. What will the scenario of decoupling look like?

Imagine the chronology:

1. Bitcoin is going sideways again after a hyper-growth

2. BTC dominance drops to 42–45%

3. A new generation DeFi boom begins

4. ETH gets its own capital flow

5. ETH starts trending not in sync with Bitcoin, but with a lag and its own cycle strategies

So the decoupling is not when ETH flies higher.

Decoupling is when the correlation starts to break down and becomes <0.6.

---

🧩 5. Can ETH become a separate macro asset, like gold and oil?

Yes.

But not in the next 1–2 years.

It needs:

— autonomous demand

— autonomous institutions

— autonomous liquidity

— autonomous economy (L2, staking rates, gas models)

When this will happen — Ethereum will become something like a 'technology asset' at the NASDAQ level within crypto.

---

🧿 Summary in simple terms

Ethereum can decouple from Bitcoin.

But only when it becomes not a 'crypto class asset', but an 'infrastructure class asset'.

Until then — it will be traveling on the same train, just in a different carriage. $ETH