In the past two weeks, Bitcoin has fallen from over 110,000 to now 90,000, yet the voices of 'buying the dip' have never stopped—calling to buy at 110,000, calling to buy at 100,000 to catch the bottom, and still calling for a bottom even after it dropped below 90,000. Why is that? Where is the bottom?
1. Why is there always a voice for 'buying the dip' during every decline?
1) Some people always believe that in the long term it must rise
When it drops a little, they think it's a bargain; the more it drops, the more they want to buy. These people apply long-term logic to short-term fluctuations.
2) Some people are stuck and need 'faith' to stabilize their emotions
Their calls for a bottom are not judgments but rather self-comfort.
3) Those who truly understand cycles will not loudly call for a bottom.
Old players all know:
The real bottom does not come from shouting, but appears when 'no one dares to bottom fish'.
There are too many people calling for a bottom now, so the market is clearly not at a despair level yet.
2. The bottom is not a 'price', but a state.
The real major bottom is never a specific number, but a state of market sentiment:
The market is not discussing Bitcoin
KOLs dare not call for a rise
Investors feel that 'the rebound is useless, it will still fall'
Leverage has been completely cleared
A large number of liquidations
Funds are completely flat
The Federal Reserve's attitude has warmed
Even the optimistic are silent now
When no one is saying to bottom fish anymore, that is the real bottom.
It is obviously not here yet.
3. Why has there been a continuous drop recently? (The macro environment determines the direction)
This round of decline is not Bitcoin's own problem, but the macro environment is too bad:
The Federal Reserve's shift in interest rate policy, insufficient liquidity
The U.S. economic data worsens, and risk aversion rises
Global risk assets are falling, especially U.S. stocks with high correlation
The crypto market lacks new funds, and the main players are fleeing
Simply put:
Without liquidity, Bitcoin cannot rise; without funds, bottom fishing is just talk.
This is also why every wave of rebound is very weak.
4. The key positions of Bitcoin (support and resistance)
Support below:
88,000 (first support) - mid-track of monthly level, technical support
79,000 - 85,000 (strong support) - multiple institutions' funding accumulation area in April
80,000 round number (psychological barrier) - (should be the concept that 50% of people generally psychologically enter a bear market)
Deeper long-cycle support: 69,000 - 75,000 (breaking it means 80% of people should accept entering a bear market)
Resistance above:
96,000 (resistance after breaking)
100,000 (emotional threshold)
107,000 (the point where the trend truly strengthens)
The overall structure is still weak, the rebound is more of a repair, not a reversal.
5. Under what conditions will Bitcoin really bottom out?
The bottom will simultaneously show the following characteristics:
Market sentiment has completely collapsed
A large number of liquidations
The media is starting to be pessimistic
KOLs dare not call for a rise
Funding rates have turned deeply negative
A huge bearish candlestick appears
Those who bottom fish disappear, and everyone starts to doubt Bitcoin
At that moment, the market will naturally provide a bottom.
It is still far from that state now.
6. The most practical operational advice
1) Do not guess the bottom; the bottom comes from rising, not calculating.
Before the trend turns, any rebound is just a breather.
2) Deploy in batches, do not go all in at once.
Add a little position every 7-10% drop.
3) Do not exceed 30% position in a bear market.
Keep some bullets, otherwise you won’t be able to act even if the market gives you opportunities.
4) Do not be led by market news sentiment.
Real big funds do not care about the direction of news; they only look at trends and data.
In summary
If many people in the market are still saying 'bottom fishing, bottom fishing, bottom fishing', it indicates that the bottom has not been reached.
The real bottom is when everyone gives up, is desperate, and dares not care about it.
