📊 BTC Technical & Market Analysis (Nov 2025)
1. Current Technical Picture
According to aiTrendview, $BTC recently broke out of the 50-day MA and shows a bullish MACD signal. �
aiTrendview
Key support is around $107K–$110K, while major resistance is near $120K–$125K. �
aiTrendview
LiteFinance: The 200-day SMA is a major support (~$103,200), and RSI is neutral (~54). �
LiteFinance
If BTC breaks above resistance, there might be momentum toward $121,500–$124,000. �
LiteFinance
2. Risks & Warning Signs
Coinfomania notes a recent drop (~-2.8%) and bearish momentum on MACD. �
Coinfomania
According to MarketWatch (via Katie Stockton), BTC has fallen below its 200-day MA (~$109,800). �
MarketWatch
If the 200-day MA doesn’t hold, next strong support is estimated near $94,200. �
MarketWatch
3. Macro / Fundamental Factors
Macro risks: Rising investor caution, uncertainty over U.S. interest rate cuts. �
Reuters +2
On-chain strength: Some models see continued accumulation, but there’s tension — strong supply zones are near resistance, and distribution could happen if BTC fails to break higher. �
Coin Edition +1
4. Scenarios to Watch
Scenario
What Could Happen
Bullish
If BTC holds $107K–110K and breaks out past $120K, we could see a sustained rally toward $121K–$124K+.
Bearish
If BTC loses the 200-day MA (~$109K) convincingly, price could drop toward $94K+ support. �
MarketWatch
Range
BTC might remain in a consolidation range between $108K–$120K if macro uncertainty persists.
✅ My Take (Based on Current Setup)
Short-term: The market is somewhat cautious. The breakout setup is promising, but BTC needs to clear strong resistance and maintain support.
Mid-term: If macro conditions improve (e.g., dovish Fed, more ETF inflows), there is a real chance for a strong move higher.
Risk: A breakdown below the 200-day MA could trigger a deeper correction, so it’s a pivotal level right now.
