$ETH Current price 3048, the daily line is really weak right now. The Bollinger Bands are opening downwards, and the current price is close to the lower band. The support at 2885 looks precarious; in a downtrend, support generally breaks easily. The trading volume is much lower than the 5-day and 10-day average, and when it drops with low volume, it will either continue to decline weakly or wait for a volume increase to rebound before a trend reversal.
The MACD green bars have not shrunk yet, the bears have not retreated, but the DIF and DEA are getting closer, which might lead to a weak rebound, though don't expect a reversal. KDJ and RSI are all in the oversold zone, and the probability of a short-term rebound is high, but in a downtrend, being oversold can still lead to further overselling; this is something to keep in mind. The OBV has been going down, and funds are fleeing; the bears are still dominant.
From the candlestick analysis, since it dropped from 4956, it hasn’t looked back, just that small rebound at 2946, then it dropped again. The support is at 2885 and 2800, and the resistance at the middle band of 3428 is a hurdle that cannot be crossed in the short term.
For 1000U playing perpetual contracts, I suggest shorting on the rebound, the trend is this way, don’t go against it. Entering around 3150 is most suitable, set the stop-loss at 3200, that’s just a loss of over 15U, with a take-profit at 2885, you can gain 84U, with a risk-reward ratio of 5:1, which is quite favorable.
Just a reminder, if it breaks 3200, quickly stop-loss, don’t hold on stubbornly. Even with 1x leverage, you need to control your position, don’t exceed 10% of the principal, and monitor the volume closely; if there is a volume increase that breaks the middle band, then consider reversing to go long.
Do you think 2885 can hold? Can this rebound reach 3400? Let’s discuss in the comments. $ETH #加密市场观察
